Greg Barton, Deakin University

Spoiler alert: we are not winning the global war on terror. If the past 20 years of fighting terrorism by military means have shown us anything, it is that going to war makes things worse.

The direct costs in terms of human suffering – lives lost, societies destroyed and trillions of dollars spent – are multiplied by unintended consequences and cascading problems.

Invading Iraq in 2003 created a vacuum quickly filled with violent insurgencies that led directly to the rise of the Islamic State and indirectly to a devastating decade of civil war in Syria. It did not make sense at the time and it certainly does not make sense now.

Launching a military campaign in Afghanistan weeks after the attacks of September 11, however, started out looking like a sensible response. Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda had planned and directed the attacks from the mountains of eastern Afghanistan.

It was there in the late 1980s, during the struggle of the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet military, that al-Qaeda – “the base” – had been formed to support foreign mujahideen. The mission was to further radicalise and equip them to take jihad to the world.

The initial US special forces operation, which then Prime Minister John Howard insisted Australia join, had the goal of capturing or killing bin Laden and the al-Qaeda leadership. It also aimed to deny al-Qaeda a safe haven in Afghanistan to launch further attacks.

The Taliban regime that had come to power in Kabul five years earlier chose to protect al-Qaeda and suffered the consequences. Mullah Baradar and other Taliban leaders yielded power in Kabul in November, much more quickly than anyone had anticipated. They then staged a strategic retreat to insurgent mode.

In 2002, mission creep saw an international coalition doing what many said should have been done a decade earlier when the Soviets left. For a moment, nation-building seemed to be working, but then attention turned to invading Iraq.

Even without the distraction of marching on Baghdad and sinking into a rapidly expanding quagmire of our own making, pretty much every mistake in counter-insurgency and nation-building that could be made in Afghanistan was made. A brittle, corrupt, incompetent and highly centralised government in Kabul presented opportunities on all fronts to the Taliban insurgency.

Even after a massive military surge early in the second decade of the 21st century that saw 140,000 International Security Assistance Force NATO troops enter the conflict, the patient Taliban remained. Then, after the sharp drawn-down of international troops in 2014, the Taliban insurgency expanded.

Long story short, the war on terror, and fighting terrorism by military means, has been a largely unmitigated failure. Even in Africa, where failing states and jihadi insurgencies have demanded military responses, victories have been short-lived. At best, as in Somalia, they have resulted in costly stalemates.

Military interventions have been costly and counter-productive

This is not to say the struggle against global terrorism has been complete without result. Elaborate terror plots targeting cities around the globe, first by al-Qaeda and then by IS, have been defeated and prevented on an impressive scale. But this has been achieved primarily by police-led counter-terrorism intelligence operations, working with communities, intercepting communications in terrorist networks and disrupting plots.

Military successes, such as the destruction of the IS caliphate in Syria and Iraq, have come not only at an enormous cost but also as corrections to problems created by military interventions.

Now in Afghanistan, there is the only failure. Two decades of significant achievement in transforming Afghan society, if not building a robust government, have been washed away.

Not only that, the original success in defeating jihadi terrorism is also at an end, with the return of the Taliban and the success of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan project.

Developments in Afghanistan will be significant for at least three key reasons.

First, the triumph of the Taliban after two decades of struggle against the combined forces of NATO and the US is being seized on as evidence of divine approval for the global jihadist cause.

Ironically, although declaring a global war on terror proved to be a monumental mistake, jihadi movements such as al-Qaeda, the Taliban and IS are defined by their commitment to what they claim to be a holy war. That is why the success of the Taliban, after 20 years of struggle, resounds around the world. And that is why, for all of their post-victory rebranding and social media information campaign, the Taliban, as a jihadi movement, remains bound to al-Qaeda.

Second, the mountains of Afghanistan will once again become home to mujahideen from across Asia and around the world. Jihadi camps in Afghanistan will return to making a significant contribution to the recruitment, radicalisation, training and networking of new generations of jihadi fighters and movements in South-East Asia.

The Taliban regime in Kabul (or Kandahar) will, despite the Taliban’s existential commitment to global jihad, likely seek to distance itself from such camps. It will exploit plausible deniability, as it focuses on rehabilitating and reinventing its international reputation and securing the long-term viability of the Islamic emirate. This will potentially have the not insignificant benefit of restraining the Taliban from some of the brutal excesses of the past, particularly with respect to the oppression of women and the persecution of minority groups like the Hazara.

But it will also contribute to a third, more insidious challenge. As world powers like China and Russia, neighbours like Iran and Pakistan, and Muslim nations like Indonesia and Malaysia seek to engage with the emirate in order to moderate the Taliban regime, local Islamist groups will exploit the opportunity to push the boundaries of the permissible in South-East Asia. This is already on display with statements congratulating “our brothers the Taliban” from radical Islamist political groups such as the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS).

The threat in southeast Asia

Over the past two decades, jihadi extremism with origins in the Afghan alumni – mujahideen trained and radicalised in Afghanistan in the 1980s and 1990s, and groups formed in Afghanistan such as Jemaah Islamiyah and the Abu Sayyaf Group – has been foundational to violent extremism in our region. This was amplified by a new generation of South-East Asian mujahideen returning from Syria and Iraq.

The stage is set for a new era of terrorist growth in South-East Asia and around the world. The IS motto of “remaining and expanding” rang hollow in the wake of the destruction of the caliphate.

Now, as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is set to eclipse the caliphate in scale and longevity, the jihadi catch-cry appears to have been met with divine vindication.

Greg Barton, Chair in Global Islamic Politics, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Australian shares rallied for a second week in a row with travel stocks taking off after New South Wales announced the resumption of international travel from 01 November.

With COVID 19 restrictions starting to ease and the US entering into earnings season with solid profits from Morgan Stanley and Citi group it seems that the capital markets are picking up steam as we head into the Christmas period.

A heavily oversubscribed Judo Bank was also welcomed positively by the investors as ASX recorded its first week-on-week gains since September. The SME lender is listing on 01 November and set a record in bidding value.

The announcement by NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet also put a spring up in travel stocks with Flight Centre jumping 3.77%, Regional Express rallying 6.12%, Webjet gaining 4.05%, Corporate Travel Management lifting by 2.69% and Qantas rising 1.97%.

Qantas also added that it would also bring forward the restart of its international flights by two weeks to November 1.

Even though Prime Minister Scott Morrison somewhat spoiled the party by clarifying it would be only Australian citizens, residents and their immediate family members who would be allowed in, rather than tourists, students and skilled workers, it did not reduce the momentum.

The travel stocks in Australia have been rising for a couple of months in Australia anticipation of the opening of international borders and we believe they may continue their journey North as more and more restrictions are eased.

The week also saw a rise in mining giants BHP and FMG as iron prices continued to firm again. Rio Tinto however missed out on rally and dropped after posting its third-quarter production results and downgrading its full-year Pilbara shipping guidance. Rio Tinto also cut guidance on iron ore production in Canada.

The banks also recovered after dips in the week before. With inflation being the talk of the town any increase in interest rate rise should be beneficial for banks and thus we can see any dips in banking prices to be quickly bought up by investors looking to bag a blue-chip stock on discount.

The investors will be keeping a close watch on banking stocks with three of the four banks reporting annual results end of this month, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia will provide its quarterly update in November.

Moving forward continuing progress in the battle to contain COVID-19 infections and opening up further will be vital in helping to continue the market momentum.

In regards to gold, it was another week of aggressive swings. A dip in US Dollar Index and falling Treasury bonds helped gold gain ground during the start of the week. As the week closed, however, gold’s historical investment function, as a hedge against inflation, returned to relevance to pull the yellow metal down.

With investors lacking conviction during the start of the week gold found buyers around $1760 region and briefly went above US$1800/ounce. However, a rebound in US bond yields as the week closed and a surprise increase in September retail sales dented traders confidence in the precious metal.

As per Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago ‘Gold has everything going against it. Real rates are rising, equities are higher, so is Bitcoin.”

Reduced stimulus and talks of interest rates rise also go against the bullion as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal goes up. Moving forward, investors will be keeping a close eye on the physical gold market and hoping that the festival season in India will bolster the demand for gold and in return flip the prices back up for gold.

Oil extended its gains for an eighth consecutive week, to reach new multi-year highs. The eight straight weeks of gains also marked the longest streak of weekly gains for the black gold since 1999.

A massive shortage of coal and natural gas in Asia and Europe has left the power plants reluctantly having to choose crude oil over natural gas. This is a pattern not seen in over a decade and a stark reversal from the foregone conclusion of natural gas being the preferred fuel for power generation.

The current increase in oil demand from power producers has further squeezed the already tight oil supplies. With OPEC nations in no hurry to increase oil prices, Valendara Energy Partners have forecasted that crude oil prices to test US $90 level or higher by next month.

Given the rise in natural gas prices recently they believe even if crude oil prices climb above $100 per barrel, they would still be more economical than natural gas. Thus exerting upward pressure on oil prices.

Many analysts believe that even if oil output is further ramped up in the coming months the oil market will remain undersupplied by roughly 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. With Northern Hemisphere entering into the winter months this should continue to boost oil prices shortly.

In regards to the local currency, the Australian Dollar rallied for a third consecutive week as investors were buoyed by easing COVID restrictions.

Despite another disappointing Australian labour market report, the commodity-based currency was able to capitalise on increasing risk sentiment. The labour report might have been disappointing, however, the traders were looking at the future and with Australia now unwinding restrictions and moving forward with reopening we should see more upward movements in the Aussie dollar.

Having said that the situation remains fluid as COVID cases continue to be on the rise. A reintroduction of lockdowns in case the delta cases explode could derail the optimism. The Australian currency is one of the most sentiment sensitive currency can be left vulnerable if lockdowns make a comeback.

Moving forwards traders of Australian currency will keep a close eye on Chinese GDP data, due this week. China is Australia’s largest trade partner and softer growth for China negatively impacts the Aussie. Having said that power crisis in Asia has meant that China has started to buy Australian coal again. While Australia is also capitalising on coal demand from India to combat power shortages.

For the Indian currency, the week has not been as positive. While the Rupee did make a mild gain against the US Dollar on risk-on sentiment, it fell against a basket of other currencies such as the Euro, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Pound Sterling.

As per the data released by the government, India’s trade deficit widened to record levels in September, reaching $22.6 billion as crude oil and gold imports surged.

The widening trade deficit however has currently been cushioned by an inflow of foreign funds in the stock market and IPOs in India, thus keeping the Reserve Bank of India calm.

However, rising oil prices continue to impact the Indian currency. India has about 77% dependency on oil imports and rising oil prices have resulted in Rupee falling about 3.3% against the US Dollar since 1^st September. Other major Asian currencies have depreciated only about 1% against the greenback during the same period.

In the world of Cryptocurrencies, the cryptocurrencies surged for the second week in a row to go past the $2.5 trillion mark after expecting to green light from the US regulator.

Bitcoin blazed through the US $60,000 and hit highs of $63,000 on Saturday before falling back slightly. It however was enough to move the combined cryptocurrency market to over $2.5 trillion, thus returning to its May peak.

With Bitcoin, Ethereum and most other altcoins rocketing higher, the analysts are predicting a ludicrously strong rally through the rest of 2021.

As per Nick Spanos, creator of Bitcoin Centre NYC and co-founder of Zap.org, Bitcoin is expected to hit $100,000 before the end of the year. Mr Spanos also expects Ethereum price to more than double to between US$10,000 and $20,000.

Last week also saw Ripple, move back over the US $1. XRP has endured major losses recently and has amassed immense hate from the SEC. It was also shown the door by many exchanges. Despite this, the citizens of the UK invested heavily in Ripple. As per a report published by Finance Magnate, Ripple was the most sought after cryptocurrency in the UK, followed by Cardano.

In agricultural products prices of wheat has continued their record march higher as drought fears in the Northern hemisphere continue to bite. Iran placed an order to buy a record 8 million tonnes of wheat after its domestic crop was hit by drought.

Bread is a staple in Iran and jumps in food imports and high global grain prices are expected to hit the country finances hard. The country is currently suffering its worst drought in 50 years and continue to reflect global food security concerns fuelled partly by economic hardships caused by COVID.

With supply in Russia also hit by drought-like conditions, and the arrival of La Nina conditions the food prices across the globe are now at their highest in 46 years.

September 2021 was Earth’s fifth warmest September since record-keeping began in 1880. This also brought with it drought-like conditions in Russia and Canada, two of the largest wheat producers in the world. As such the 2021 harvest is not expected to meet consumption requirements in 2021/22 thus keeping the price for food grains higher in the foreseeable future.

Author: Ateev Dang is a trader and trading coach by profession. He runs his own business called Glow trades Pty Ltd where he teaches anyone interested in starting on their trading journey on how to trade. He can be contacted at adang@glowtrades.com.au.

Disclaimer:

The writers’ opinions in the above article are their own and do not constitute any financial advice whatsoever. Nothing published by The Australia Today constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content publication be relied upon for providing any investment activities.

We strongly recommend that you perform your independent research and/or speak with a financial advisor or qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.