Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing a renewed threat to her leadership, with reports that Labor MPs and factional powerbrokers are discussing whether to force a change before Parliament returns on Tuesday.

The reported push follows months of poor polling, internal criticism over the government’s response to alleged corruption on Big Build construction projects and growing fears among Labor MPs that the party is heading towards a heavy defeat at the November state election.

It has been reported that members of Ms Allan’s own Socialist Left faction had joined figures from the Labor Right in sounding out colleagues and assessing whether there was enough support to approach the Premier and ask her to stand aside.

No formal leadership challenge has been announced, no challenger has publicly declared an intention to run, and there is no independently confirmed caucus count showing the Premier has lost the support of her party room.

However, the latest reports mark an escalation from earlier leadership speculation because they suggest conversations are now occurring across factional lines rather than being limited to a small group of dissatisfied MPs.

One Labor figure quoted anonymously described Tuesday as the final realistic opportunity to act before the campaign entered its closing months, while another said the mood inside the government was “as grim as it’s ever been”.

The Australia Today has not independently verified the private conversations or anonymous accounts.

The Victorian Parliament is scheduled to return at noon on Tuesday, July 28, for the first of three consecutive sitting days. The return will bring Labor MPs back together in Melbourne and provide an opportunity for those seeking a leadership change to determine whether their concerns have translated into firm votes.

Ms Allan’s supporters maintain that she has no intention of resigning and remains focused on leading Labor to the November 28 election.

The Premier has previously rejected leadership speculation and declared she was “all in” and “absolutely determined to see this through”. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also publicly backed her in June, describing her as the best person to lead Victoria.

The renewed unrest has been fuelled by a JWS Research poll commissioned by Australian Energy Producers, which reportedly surveyed 1,000 voters across 28 marginal and politically important Victorian seats between June 26 and July 3.

The poll placed the Coalition ahead of Labor by 56 to 44 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. It recorded primary support of 29 per cent for the Coalition, 24 per cent for One Nation, 23 per cent for Labor and 14 per cent for the Greens.

The result would represent a severe reversal from the 2022 state election, when Labor won 55 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and secured 56 lower house seats. Labor’s official first-preference vote at that election was 37.03 per cent, compared with 34.37 per cent for the Liberal and National parties combined.

The latest survey should nevertheless be interpreted cautiously.

It was conducted across selected marginal and politically important electorates rather than being presented as a conventional statewide random sample. Its two-party estimate also depends on assumptions about preferences at a time when One Nation is attracting a substantial share of the primary vote.

Australian Energy Producers has an active interest in Victorian government policy and has campaigned against Labor’s restrictions on new household gas connections and broader electrification program. The organisation separately released findings from the same 1,000-person JWS survey showing opposition to parts of the government’s gas policy.

That does not invalidate the political findings, but the commissioning body, sample design, question wording and preference assumptions are important when assessing what the figures may mean for the statewide contest.

Other polling has also shown Labor losing support to the Coalition, One Nation and minor parties, indicating the government’s political problems are not confined to one survey.

A separate poll commissioned by the Victorian Trades Hall Council reportedly placed One Nation on 27 per cent of the primary vote, with Labor and the Coalition both on 26 per cent. Its modelling suggested One Nation could win several lower house seats, particularly in outer-suburban and regional communities where voters are dissatisfied with the major parties.

The leadership pressure intensified after last week’s Labor caucus retreat in Ballarat, which had been intended to reset the government’s political strategy before the election campaign.

Police Minister and Leader of the House Anthony Carbines reportedly delivered a heated intervention during the retreat, arguing the party had not done enough to address public concerns about alleged corruption and organised crime connected to the construction industry.

Accounts differed over whether Mr Carbines’ criticism was principally aimed at the Premier’s office or Labor’s campaign headquarters, but there was broad agreement that his intervention exposed deep frustration within the government.

Mr Carbines later appeared beside Ms Allan and refused to discuss what was said in caucus.

“You’re referring to the caucus conference, and I don’t comment on caucus meetings,” he told reporters.

He insisted his public position remained aligned with the government and said he was working with Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Mike Bush to strengthen the response to organised crime.

The dispute comes as the government faces continuing pressure over allegations involving the CFMEU, criminal networks and taxpayer-funded construction projects.

Ms Allan has acknowledged that criminals infiltrated parts of the Big Build but has rejected opposition demands for a royal commission, arguing that police investigations, stronger regulatory action and expanded powers for integrity agencies offer a faster response.

Several Labor MPs and ministers have privately supported a broader inquiry, while others fear the issue has become inseparable from Ms Allan’s previous responsibility for Victoria’s major infrastructure program.

The Premier has disputed an estimate that corruption and misconduct added as much as $15 billion to the cost of public projects, describing that figure as untested. However, she has not provided an alternative estimate of the financial damage.

The controversy has created a difficult political equation for Labor.

Removing a Premier four months before an election would risk reinforcing perceptions of chaos and panic. Retaining a leader whose public standing has deteriorated could place dozens of Labor MPs in danger of losing their seats.

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll continues to be discussed as the only senior figure considered capable of mounting an immediate challenge with support from multiple parts of the party.

Mr Carroll publicly ruled out challenging Ms Allan before the June caucus meeting and said he had been a loyal deputy throughout her leadership. That intervention prevented an expected showdown at the time and allowed the Premier to survive until the winter parliamentary break.

Any attempt to replace Ms Allan would therefore depend on whether Mr Carroll was prepared to reconsider that position or whether senior MPs could persuade the Premier to resign voluntarily and create a vacant leadership.

Other figures, including senior minister Gabrielle Williams, have previously been discussed as possible successors, but she has publicly backed Ms Allan and described her as an experienced leader.

Those advocating change also face the danger of launching a challenge without secured numbers.

A failed spill would strengthen Ms Allan temporarily, expose the rebels and deepen the divisions already consuming the government. It could also leave Labor campaigning under a leader who had survived an attempted coup but whose authority had been further damaged.

Conversely, a successful transition would give a new Premier only about four months to establish an identity, reshape the government’s policy agenda and distance Labor from controversies accumulated during almost 12 years in office.

The opposition is certain to portray any leadership change as evidence of a government consumed by internal conflict.

Liberal leader Jess Wilson has placed government debt, taxation, crime and alleged corruption at the centre of her campaign, while promising a royal commission into the Big Build and CFMEU-linked misconduct.

One Nation’s rise presents a separate threat to Labor in outer Melbourne and regional Victoria, where cost-of-living pressures, dissatisfaction with government services and falling trust in major institutions are reshaping traditional voting patterns.

Victoria’s next state election will be held on Saturday, November 28. Labor enters the contest with a large parliamentary majority inherited from its 2022 victory, but recent polling suggests many previously safe seats could become competitive if its primary vote remains in the mid-20s.

Tuesday will not automatically produce a leadership spill.

There may be no delegation, no challenge and no caucus ballot. Mr Carroll may maintain his public refusal to run, and dissatisfied MPs may ultimately decide that changing leaders would create more damage than it resolves.

But the continuing leaks, factional discussions and public interventions from senior ministers show that Ms Allan’s leadership remains under sustained pressure.

Labor MPs now face a decision that can no longer be delayed indefinitely: remain behind the Premier and accept the electoral consequences, or attempt a highly risky leadership change with fewer than 130 days remaining before Victorians vote.

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