On September 19, Houthi forces claimed missile and drone strikes on unspecified “sensitive sites” in Riyadh and on an Aramco facility in Yanbu, hours after a fire near King Khalid International Airport had been put out; Saudi authorities confirmed a ballistic missile aimed at the capital was intercepted. Three days before that, Saudi Arabia said it shot down a Houthi drone heading toward Mecca and called the safety of Islam’s holiest city a “red line”, an accusation the Houthis denied outright, insisting their targets were oil and military sites well away from the holy places. Whichever version is true, the fact that a Mecca strike is now a live accusation in this conflict shows how far things have moved since the Houthis declared their Red Sea blockade in July and seized ground toward Bab el-Mandeb.
The US reportedly turned down a direct Saudi request to strike Houthi positions last week, a sharp reversal from the “major military punishment” Trump had threatened in July, and consistent with the ceasefire arrangement his administration had already reached with the group months earlier. Trump has left everyone guessing whether he will come to Mohammed bin Salman’s rescue or not.
It fits a pattern, not a one-off. Trump has spent this term treating close allies as adversaries, tariff fights with Canada, public friction with the UK and Japan, pressure on South Korea, a running feud with Macron, a public rupture with Meloni serious enough that Italy’s foreign minister cancelled a Washington visit, and repeated jabs at NATO. Henry Kissinger’s old line that it can be dangerous to be America’s enemy but fatal to be its friend reads less like a quip and more like a warning label for Riyadh right now. Washington’s underlying power looks diminished, not just its willingness to use it.
Saudi Arabia’s own alternative alliance offers even less. The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, linking Riyadh with Pakistan and Turkey, was a non-starter to begin with. Pakistan is a de facto failed state, contending with domestic insurgencies and an economy on its 24th IMF bailout. It was also handed a crushing military defeat by India last year: India struck nine terror sites inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir on May 7, then on May 10 hit roughly a dozen Pakistani military airbases; satellite imagery and geolocated video showed runway craters and destroyed hangars at several bases including Nur Khan and Bholari — forcing Islamabad to beg for a ceasefire within four days. A state that couldn’t secure its own skies was never going to extend a credible security umbrella over the Arabian Peninsula. Turkey brings its own problems, inflation is still above 30 per cent, on top of a long-standing rivalry with Saudi Arabia for leadership within the Muslim world that makes deep military solidarity unlikely no matter what the treaty says.
China is not a workable substitute either — despite being Saudi Arabia’s biggest trading partner, it remains closely aligned with Iran. It’s also worth noting that, much as happened in Pakistan last year, the Chinese-made air defense systems Iran fielded failed when the US and Israel struck. A patron whose own hardware can’t protect its client has nothing to offer Riyadh on restraining the Houthis.
That leaves India as the only superpower with real standing to get Saudi Arabia out of this quagmire. India is Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading partner, has good relations with both Riyadh and Tehran, maintains a substantial defense relationship with Israel — now allegedly assisting the Saudis — and, unlike Washington or Beijing, doesn’t take sides in the Gulf’s traditional rivalries. It was able to bring Iran and the UAE to the table on the sidelines of this month’s BRICS summit in New Delhi. Since then, there have been no strikes by Iran or its proxies on the UAE.
No other power commands respect across Tehran, Abu Dhabi, Jerusalem and Riyadh at once — which is why Modi might be Salman’s best shot at getting this situation under control before it spirals into something much bigger.
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