Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing renewed leadership speculation after a new poll showed Labor’s primary vote falling behind both the Coalition and One Nation just months before the state election.

A Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the Herald Sun between June 5 and 8 found Labor’s primary vote had fallen to 23 per cent, down four points since March and 14 points lower than Labor’s 2022 state election result. The Coalition was ahead on 27 per cent, while One Nation surged to 25 per cent, placing Pauline Hanson’s party ahead of Labor in Victoria’s state voting intention.

The poll also found the Coalition leading Labor 53 to 47 on a two-party-preferred basis, a result that would put the Allan Government on track for a heavy defeat if repeated at the election.

The figures have sharpened pressure on Allan, with 62 per cent of voters saying Labor should change leader before the November election. The result included 39 per cent of Labor voters, although 53 per cent of Labor supporters still backed Allan to remain leader.

Allan’s personal numbers are now a major problem for Labor. The poll put her net favourability at negative 37, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson recorded a positive 15 rating and led Allan as preferred premier by almost two to one.

The result is understood to have reignited internal discussion within Labor about whether the Premier can recover before polling day. According to the Herald Sun, left and right faction figures have been engaged in an active “conversation” about Allan’s leadership, although there are no confirmed plans for an imminent spill.

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll was identified in the poll as the most appealing alternative among Labor’s potential replacements. Freshwater Strategy found switching to Carroll could lift Labor’s primary vote by two points, but the firm warned that replacing Allan would not be a quick fix because possible successors remain relatively unknown to many voters.

Freshwater Strategy head of research Jordan Meyers told the Herald Sun that Allan had become a drag on Labor’s vote, but said the party’s leadership problem was not easily solved.

“A clear majority of voters now say it is time for Labor to change leader,” he said.

“The complication for Labor is that changing leader is no quick fix.”

The poll confirms a wider trend of Victorian Labor losing ground after more than a decade in government. A March Freshwater Strategy poll had already shown the Coalition ahead 52 to 48 on a two-party-preferred basis, with polling analysts noting that Allan’s unpopularity was weighing heavily on Labor.

The latest numbers also point to a more fractured political landscape, with One Nation becoming a serious factor in Victoria rather than only a regional protest vote. DemosAU polling earlier this year had already shown One Nation rising to 21 per cent in Victoria, behind the Coalition on 29 per cent and Labor on 23 per cent.

The party’s surge is not confined to Victoria. National polling has shown One Nation overtaking Labor on primary vote for the first time in Newspoll history, with voter anger over housing, economic pressure and government performance driving support towards minor parties.

For Allan, the pressure is also playing out on the ground. She has recently been seen door-knocking in her Bendigo East electorate, a seat she has held since 1999. Her official parliamentary profile confirms she has represented Bendigo East since Labor’s 1999 election victory.

The Premier has also faced a separate political storm over a privately funded “ditch the witch” billboard campaign in Melbourne.

The campaign was condemned as sexist by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, former prime minister Julia Gillard and politicians across the spectrum, including Opposition Leader Jess Wilson. Allan said sexist language had no place in political debate and warned that such attacks damaged women in public life more broadly.

The billboard controversy may have drawn sympathy for Allan, but it has not shifted the broader political problem facing Labor. The government is under pressure over cost of living, crime, debt, integrity, housing and public services, while One Nation is increasingly presenting itself as an outlet for voters angry with both major parties.

The rise of One Nation also complicates the election contest for both Labor and the Coalition. For the Liberals and Nationals, it risks splitting the conservative and protest vote. For Labor, the danger is more direct: One Nation’s growth in outer suburban and working-class areas could hollow out traditional Labor support in seats where cost-of-living pressure is acute.

Allan’s supporters will argue there is still time to recover, particularly if voters focus on the risks of a three-way contest and the uncertainty of minor-party influence. Her critics inside and outside Labor will argue the latest poll shows the Premier has become the face of voter fatigue after years of Labor rule.

With the election due in November, Labor now faces a difficult choice. It can stick with Allan and hope the campaign narrows the gap, or risk a late leadership change that may bring only limited improvement.

Either way, the latest polling suggests Victorian politics has entered a far more volatile phase, with Labor no longer simply fighting the Coalition, but also fighting a rising One Nation vote that is feeding on public frustration.

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