Victoria’s election contest has entered unpredictable territory, with a major new poll placing One Nation narrowly ahead of both the Allan Labor government and the Liberal-National Coalition.
The RedBridge survey of about 6,500 Victorian voters, commissioned by the Victorian Trades Hall Council, recorded One Nation on 27 per cent of the primary vote. Labor and the Coalition were tied on 26 per cent, while the Greens received 12 per cent and other parties secured 8 per cent.
The figures point to an extraordinary three-way contest ahead of the November state election, with neither of Victoria’s traditional major political blocs establishing a clear primary-vote advantage.
RedBridge reportedly prepared seat-by-seat modelling using voters’ stated preferences and demographic information, producing low, median and high scenarios for each party.
Under Labor’s most favourable scenario, the government could secure seats in the mid-40s and narrowly retain power. Under its least favourable projection, however, its representation could fall into the 20s, ending Labor’s bid for a fourth consecutive term.
The modelling also indicates that small movements of one or two percentage points could change the outcome across several electorates because of unpredictable preference flows involving One Nation, Labor and the Coalition.
The result does not necessarily mean One Nation is on course to form government.
Victoria uses preferential voting, and converting a strong statewide primary vote into lower-house seats will depend on candidate coverage, geographic support and how preferences flow in three-candidate contests.
One Nation’s support has been strongest in regional, provincial and outer-metropolitan Victoria, while remaining comparatively weaker in inner-Melbourne electorates. The party also does not have a Victorian parliamentary leader, adding uncertainty about how its statewide support would translate into a coordinated campaign and seat victories.
The poll will nevertheless intensify pressure on Premier Jacinta Allan, whose government is attempting to rebuild support after more than a decade in office.
Victorian Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari is expected to brief unions on the polling and encourage a major campaign effort to improve Labor’s position before election day.
Labor has already begun framing the contest as a choice between its government and a possible partnership between the Coalition and One Nation.
A new Labor advertisement claims Opposition Leader Jess Wilson would require One Nation’s support to form government and argues that opposition spending reductions would threaten hospitals, beds and healthcare workers.
The Coalition has rejected Labor’s characterisation of its plans. It has proposed reducing government expenditure by about $22 billion over 10 years through measures including a public service hiring freeze and natural attrition, while maintaining that frontline services would be protected.
The polling presents a challenge for Ms Wilson as well as Ms Allan. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with Labor, the Coalition has not emerged as the clear alternative government and is tied with Labor while sitting behind One Nation on primary support.
It also raises difficult questions about preference recommendations, negotiations with minor parties and whether the Coalition would accept support from One Nation in a hung parliament.
The Greens, polling at 12 per cent, could also face pressure in some electorates despite the wider decline in support for the major parties. RedBridge’s reported modelling suggests the fragmented vote may place some existing Greens seats at risk rather than automatically delivering the party further gains.
The election environment could be further reshaped by proposed changes to Victoria’s upper-house voting system. The Allan government is reportedly preparing legislation to abolish group voting tickets before the election, a change that could reduce the ability of micro-parties to win seats through negotiated preference arrangements.
Victoria will hold its state election on November 28, with all 88 Legislative Assembly seats and 40 Legislative Council positions to be contested. A party or coalition needs at least 45 lower-house seats to govern with a majority.
With One Nation, Labor and the Coalition separated by just one percentage point, the poll suggests Victoria is no longer heading towards a conventional two-party contest.
Instead, the campaign is likely to be shaped by three-way contests, volatile preferences and the growing possibility that no political force will secure a clear majority.
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