The Trump administration has launched a formal Pentagon-led review of the AUKUS security partnership, putting renewed scrutiny on the 2021 agreement under which Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom.
A U.S. defence official says the assessment will focus on the production rate of Virginia-class boats in American shipyards, the industrial investment needed to scale up capacity, and the long-term sharing of sensitive nuclear propulsion technology.
For Australia, where defence planners regard a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines as essential to deterring an increasingly assertive China in the Indo-Pacific, the review has proved unsettling.
Defence Minister Richard Marles told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that he remains confident AUKUS will proceed. He stressed that the pact serves all three nations’ strategic interests and pledged to work closely with U.S. counterparts throughout the review process. Under the original schedule, allied submarines would begin regular rotations to Australian bases by 2027, paving the way for a jointly developed new class of AUKUS-designed submarines in the decades ahead.
Despite Canberra’s reassurances, significant scepticism has surfaced in Washington. Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s newly appointed under secretary for policy and a veteran of the Trump administration, has publicly described the plan to transfer U.S. nuclear-propelled boats to Australia as “problematic,” warning that sending too many Virginia-class submarines abroad could undermine American naval readiness at a time of rising competition with China.
Such concerns mirror long-standing debates over whether Washington can simultaneously meet its own force-generation needs and support AUKUS commitments.
In Australia, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has cautioned that any delay or scaling back of the submarine program risks reducing AUKUS to little more than hosting allied vessels rather than delivering sovereign capability.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to press the pact’s importance when he meets President Trump next week on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Canberra has already committed to investing an estimated A$368 billion over 30 years in the AUKUS enterprise, including billions in U.S. shipyard expansion to support both American and Australian construction.
The timing of the review coincides with parallel announcements in London, where the U.K. government has unveiled plans to expand its own nuclear-submarine industrial base. Together, these moves underscore a shared commitment among the three allies to undersea deterrence—despite the current U.S. administration’s reservations.
As Australia, Britain, and the United States await the Pentagon’s findings, Canberra has reaffirmed that the success of AUKUS will not be determined by changing political winds but by the enduring imperatives of regional security and allied solidarity.
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