Victorian Labor’s warnings about the Liberal-National Coalition working with One Nation are not gaining traction. A new The Australia Today Multicultural Voter Survey shows Coalition support rising while Labor remains unchanged from last month.
The latest survey of 1,634 eligible Victorian voters was conducted between 7 and 16 October 2026. It recorded the Liberal-National Coalition on 35 per cent, One Nation on 28 per cent, and Labor on 26 per cent.
The Greens recorded 7 per cent, while independents and other parties collectively attracted 4 per cent.
The result points to a significant shift in political mood among multicultural voters. It reinforces the view that this voting bloc is becoming more fluid and less predictable. It is also more willing to move away from traditional party loyalties.
The latest survey puts the Coalition four percentage points higher at 35 per cent, One Nation two points higher at 28 per cent, while Labor remains unchanged at 26 per cent. The Greens have fallen from 9 per cent to 7 per cent.
The most politically damaging finding for Labor is not simply that it trails the Coalition, but that it has failed to improve at all since The Australia Today’s last multicultural voter survey.
In the latest survey, the Coalition has climbed to 35 per cent, One Nation has risen to 28 per cent, and Labor remains unchanged at 26 per cent.
That means Labor has failed to gain any visible ground, despite a strategy that has increasingly focused on warning voters about the prospect of the Liberals working with One Nation.
The results come as Victorian Labor increasingly warns voters about the possibility of the Coalition working with One Nation after the election.
The most striking finding is that Labor has made no measurable gain among respondents despite intensifying its campaign argument that a Liberal-National victory could lead to cooperation with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
Premier Ben Carroll has made the prospect of the Coalition and One Nation working together a recurring theme of Labor’s election campaign. In September, Mr Carroll told reporters that “One Nation terrifies me.” He said he would “fight every day against the Liberal Party and One Nation coming together.” He argued that such an arrangement would occur if Labor lost the November election.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has rejected the suggestion of a new formal coalition with One Nation. She says the Liberals and Nationals are the only Coalition, and she is campaigning to form a majority government.
Looks like multicultural communities are believing Jess Wilson on this.
Still, the Labor Party has made the issue a core part of its election campaign argument. Campaign messaging has targeted traditional Labor constituencies in Melbourne’s multicultural western and outer suburbs.
What the figures do show is that Labor’s campaign against a possible Liberal-One Nation relationship has not been accompanied by any measurable increase in Labor support within this sample.
And it will raise serious questions for Labor as it heads deeper into the campaign.
For the Coalition, the numbers will be encouraging.
At 35 per cent, it not only holds first place but has widened the gap over Labor. The Coalition now leads Labor by nine percentage points, a substantial margin in a multicultural voter survey at this stage of the campaign.
For One Nation, the survey is also significant.
Its rise from 26 per cent to 28 per cent suggests the party is not being pushed back by Labor’s warnings. Instead, it continues to attract a large share of respondents and remains a major force in this sample.
That creates a highly unusual three-way contest within the multicultural electorate surveyed by The Australia Today.
Rather than a straightforward battle between Labor and the Coalition, the results show a far more fractured contest in which One Nation is competing strongly for support, and Labor is struggling to regain momentum.
The findings also reinforce a broader political reality: multicultural voters cannot be treated as a locked-in constituency for any one party.
These communities are increasingly focused on practical concerns including cost of living, safety, housing, local services and trust in government performance. Where parties fail to respond to those concerns, voters appear more willing than before to look elsewhere.
That is what makes the current result so important.
Labor has not collapsed in this survey, but it has not advanced either. In a competitive political environment, stagnation can be just as damaging as decline.
While Labor remains on 26 per cent, both the Coalition and One Nation are moving upward. That shifts the political story from one of contest to one of momentum — and right now, the momentum is not with Labor.
The Greens, meanwhile, have dropped from 9 per cent to 7 per cent, while Independent/Others now account for 4 per cent.
Those smaller shifts matter because they suggest some consolidation is happening around the larger players, particularly the Coalition and One Nation.
The Australia Today survey methodology;
- Survey: The Australia Today multicultural voter survey
- Sample size: 1,634
- Fieldwork dates: 7 Oct to 16 Oct 2026
- Collection method: Email, text and phone calls
- Respondent eligibility: Eligible Victorian voters
- Margin of error: Approx. ±3%
- Important note: Results represent voting intention at the time of the survey
Its effort to frame the election around fear of One Nation does not appear to be translating into stronger support among these voters. However, the latest The Australia Today survey shows multicultural voters are still deciding for themselves. More of them are moving toward the Coalition, while One Nation remains strongly in the race.
The result leaves Labor facing a difficult question as the campaign intensifies:
If linking the Liberals with One Nation is intended to persuade multicultural voters to return to Labor, why does Labor remain on 26 per cent while the Coalition has risen to 35 per cent and One Nation to 28 per cent?
The survey suggests Victoria’s multicultural vote remains highly competitive, and increasingly difficult for any political party to take for granted.
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