A new The Australia Today Multicultural Survey suggests Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is attracting substantial support across all eight Victorian Legislative Council regions, with its strongest result in Northern Victoria.
The survey recorded One Nation support at:
- 34.5 per cent in Northern Victoria
- 27.0 per cent in Northern Metropolitan
- 25.5 per cent in Western Victoria
- 23.5 per cent in Western Metropolitan
- 23.5 per cent in South-Eastern Metropolitan
- 23.5 per cent in Eastern Victoria
- 22.5 per cent in Southern Metropolitan
- 19.5 per cent in North-Eastern Metropolitan
Under Victoria’s Legislative Council system, each region elects five MPs. A full electoral quota is approximately 16.7 per cent of the formal vote.
That means the survey places One Nation at just over two quotas in Northern Victoria, around 1.6 quotas in Northern Metropolitan, around 1.5 quotas in Western Victoria, and between roughly 1.2 and 1.4 quotas across the remaining regions.
The figures do not translate directly into seats, but they show One Nation polling well above the level required for one full quota in every region surveyed.
Northern Victoria stands out most sharply.
At 34.5 per cent, One Nation’s support in the survey is slightly above the equivalent of two full quotas. If that level of support were reproduced at the election, two One Nation candidates could theoretically reach the quota threshold largely on the party’s own primary vote.
That would represent a major change from the 2022 state election, when One Nation won only one Victorian Legislative Council seat.
Survey methodology
Survey: The Australia Today Victorian Upper House Multicultural Voter Survey
Sample size: 1,634 respondents
Fieldwork dates: 7 October to 16 October 2026
Collection method: Mixed-mode survey conducted through email, text messages and telephone calls
Geographic coverage: All eight Victorian Legislative Council regions
Respondent eligibility: Victorian residents aged 18 and over who were eligible to vote
Weighting: Results were not weighted
Indicative sampling error: For a simple random sample of 1,634 respondents, the maximum sampling error would be approximately ±2.4 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. Because this survey used mixed recruitment methods and the results were not weighted, this figure should be treated as an indicative benchmark rather than a strict margin of error. Regional uncertainty is higher because each regional subsample contains fewer respondents.
Important note: The figures represent voting intention during the survey period. They are not election results or seat forecasts. Legislative Council outcomes will also depend on preference flows, candidate support, turnout and the distribution of votes within each region.
Northern Victoria emerges as One Nation’s strongest region
Northern Victoria already has an established One Nation presence.
Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell was elected to the Legislative Council from Northern Victoria in 2022, becoming One Nation’s only Victorian Upper House MP.
At that election, One Nation received about 3.7 per cent of first preferences in the region but secured the final seat through preference distributions under the former group voting ticket system.
The Australia Today survey now places the party at 34.5 per cent in the same region.
That is more than nine times its 2022 primary vote in Northern Victoria.
Northern Victoria covers a large part of regional Victoria, including Bendigo, Shepparton, Mildura, Wangaratta and surrounding rural communities.
Political frustration over the Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund, transmission infrastructure such as VNI West, regional roads, crime, health services and cost-of-living pressures has been prominent across parts of the region.
One Nation has sought to capitalise on those concerns by campaigning heavily on regional services, taxation, law and order, energy policy and opposition to several Labor government policies.
The survey suggests those messages are resonating most strongly in Northern Victoria.
Northern Metropolitan and Western Victoria also strong
The party’s second-highest result in The Australia Today survey is 27.0 per cent in Northern Metropolitan.
That is equivalent to about 1.6 quotas.
Western Victoria follows at 25.5 per cent, slightly above one-and-a-half quotas.
Those figures would put One Nation comfortably above a full quota on primary support in both regions, leaving a substantial surplus to flow to a second candidate.
A second seat would still depend on preference distributions and the strength of other parties, but the survey indicates One Nation could remain competitive well beyond the election of its first candidate.
In Eastern Victoria, Western Metropolitan and South-Eastern Metropolitan, the party records 23.5 per cent.
That equates to around 1.4 quotas.
Southern Metropolitan records 22.5 per cent, while North-Eastern Metropolitan produces One Nation’s lowest result in the survey at 19.5 per cent.
Even that lowest regional result remains above the approximately 16.7 per cent required for a full quota.
What the quota equivalents look like
Using an approximate quota of 16.7 per cent, The Australia Today survey translates into the following quota equivalents:
| Region | One Nation support | Approximate quota equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Victoria | 34.5% | 2.07 quotas |
| Northern Metropolitan | 27.0% | 1.62 quotas |
| Western Victoria | 25.5% | 1.53 quotas |
| Eastern Victoria | 23.5% | 1.41 quotas |
| Western Metropolitan | 23.5% | 1.41 quotas |
| South-Eastern Metropolitan | 23.5% | 1.41 quotas |
| Southern Metropolitan | 22.5% | 1.35 quotas |
| North-Eastern Metropolitan | 19.5% | 1.17 quotas |
The distinction matters.
A party with 19.5 per cent support would be above one full quota but well short of a second.
A party with 23.5 per cent would elect one candidate on primary support and carry a substantial surplus into the contest for a second seat.
At 27 per cent, the surplus becomes larger again.
At 34.5 per cent in Northern Victoria, One Nation is slightly above the mathematical level required for two quotas.
Why the new voting system matters
The 2026 election will be Victoria’s first state election conducted without group voting tickets.
Previously, voters who placed a single “1” above the line effectively allowed their party to determine the flow of preferences.
That system enabled candidates with comparatively small primary votes to win seats through complex preference arrangements.
Under the new system, voters determine their own preferences.
That makes primary support far more important.
In 2022, One Nation won Northern Victoria despite receiving less than 4 per cent of first preferences.
The Australia Today survey suggests the party could enter the 2026 contest with primary support above one full quota in every Victorian Upper House region.
If reproduced on election day, that would make One Nation much less dependent on preferences for its first seat in each region.
The more important question would then become whether its surplus votes and incoming preferences were enough to elect additional candidates.
A major change from 2022
One Nation received just over 2 per cent of the statewide Legislative Council vote in 2022 and won a single seat.
The regional numbers recorded in The Australia Today survey represent a dramatically different political environment.
The highest result, 34.5 per cent in Northern Victoria, is above two quotas.
Three regions — Northern Victoria, Northern Metropolitan and Western Victoria — record support above 25 per cent.
Five other regions remain above 19 per cent.
Other public polling during 2026 has also detected a sharp rise in One Nation support in Victoria, particularly in regional areas, although individual polling organisations have produced different estimates.
The Australia Today results should therefore be read as a snapshot of voting intention among respondents during the October 7 to October 16 fieldwork period.
Because the survey was not weighted, the results should not be treated as a precise prediction of the final statewide or regional vote.
Balance of power implications
Victoria’s Legislative Council has 40 members — five from each of eight regions.
Legislation generally requires 21 votes to pass.
If One Nation converted even part of the support recorded in The Australia Today survey into seats, the party could emerge with a substantially larger presence in the Upper House than it currently holds.
That could make its MPs important in negotiations over legislation, particularly if neither Labor nor the Coalition controls the chamber.
But the final outcome will depend on more than primary voting intention.
Preference flows, candidate order, voter turnout and the performance of smaller parties will all influence who wins the fourth and fifth seats in each region.
What the survey does show is that, among its respondents, One Nation is above one full Upper House quota in every Victorian region — and in Northern Victoria, its support is above the equivalent of two.
That makes the party’s Legislative Council performance one of the major contests to watch ahead of Victoria’s November 28 election.
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