Premier Jeremy Rockliff was ousted as Tasmania’s head of government after a no-confidence motion passed by a single vote in the House of Assembly on Thursday afternoon. The motion succeeded 18 votes to 17, with opposition-aligned Speaker Michelle O’Byrne casting the deciding vote against the minority Liberal government in line with her party loyalty.
As a result, Rockliff must now seek a fresh mandate, heading to Government House to request a snap election.
Opposition Leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion, arguing that Rockliff’s administration had lost credibility due to ballooning state debt projections, plans to cut public sector jobs and proposals to offload state assets. Winter contended that the 2025–26 budget laid bare the government’s failure to manage finances responsibly, warning that debt could exceed $10 billion within four years and that critical infrastructure projects were in jeopardy. He accused Rockliff of “wrecking Tasmania’s finances” and asserted that Labor and its crossbench allies could provide steadier stewardship.
The debate spanned two days, during which all 35 members of the House of Assembly took turns addressing their constituents’ concerns. Labor, the Greens, and three crossbenchers—Craig Garland, Kristie Johnston and Andrew Jenner of the Jacqui Lambie Network—voiced alarm over the government’s fiscal trajectory and its handling of major projects such as the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, which faced public backlash due to its $945 million price tag. Green MP Tabitha Badger further pressed Winter to clarify whether Labor would seek a minority arrangement with the Greens rather than trigger an election.
When the division was called at 3:42 pm, the vote was deadlocked at 17–17. Under long-standing convention, Speaker O’Byrne—elected to her role in 2024 on a Labor ticket—exercised her casting vote against confidence in the Rockliff government.
O’Byrne emphasised that, despite relinquishing formal participation in caucus meetings, she had pledged to adhere to Labor’s position:
“No one in this chamber could realistically expect me to provide confidence to a Liberal government,”
she declared.
With Governor Barbara Baker overseas, Rockliff is scheduled to cue a meeting with Lieutenant-Governor Christopher Shanahan at Government House. Under Tasmania’s constitution, Shanahan can either grant Rockliff’s request for an early election, invite the Liberals to re-form government under a new leader, or allow Labor to negotiate confidence and supply terms with crossbenchers to avoid an immediate poll. Senior constitutional scholars have noted that a leadership handover within the Liberal Party is unlikely in the absence of clear crossbench support.
In a measured response to the vote, Rockliff told reporters that he would advise the Lieutenant-Governor to dissolve parliament and call a state election. He warned that Tasmanians did not want, nor could they afford, another ballot so soon after the March 2024 poll, suggesting that Labor’s maneuvering had created unnecessary uncertainty.
He highlighted record-low unemployment figures and investments in health, education and community safety achieved under his leadership, insisting that any election would “be on [Winter’s] head”.
Winter, for his part, rejected Rockliff’s characterisation, stating that it was the premier’s decision to take Tasmania back to the polls after losing support on the floor of the House. He insisted that Labor’s priority was to ensure responsible governance, criticising Rockliff’s record on budget deficits and accusing him of putting Tasmania’s future “on the credit card.” Winter reiterated that Labor was “not prepared to stand idly by” while the state’s fiscal challenges deepened under the current administration.
Industry and community groups have voiced concern that ongoing political instability will jeopardise key projects. The proposed Macquarie Point stadium—touted as essential for Tasmania’s entry into the Australian Football League—could face further delays or cancellation if a new government is formed without a majority. Tasmania Devils officials warned that their fledgling AFL bid could be placed in “serious jeopardy” if a leadership change derailed stadium funding.
Crossbenchers emphasised that any approach to forming government should prioritise Tasmania’s financial health. Independent Craig Garland argued that a second snap election within 15 months would erode business confidence and hamper economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, urging all parties to consider bipartisan alternatives. Kristie Johnston, another independent, called for a pause on large-scale infrastructure spending until the budget outlook stabilised.
With the state heading into uncharted territory, the Lieutenant-Governor’s decision will carry significant weight. Should he agree to a dissolution, Tasmania will hold elections likely in July; if not, Labor would have the opportunity to test its support in the Assembly without returning to voters. Whichever path Shanahan chooses, the outcome will determine whether Rockliff’s brief premiership ends definitively or if he can broker an unlikely deal to remain in power. Either way, Tasmanians face a period of heightened political uncertainty as the island state seeks stable governance at a critical fiscal juncture.
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