Victorian Labor insiders are warning the party is facing a sharp fall in support across Melbourne’s south-east, with internal polling reportedly putting the minister-held seats of Frankston and Carrum at serious risk ahead of the November 28 state election.

The Herald Sun reported on Friday that Labor polling showed the party struggling along the Frankston rail corridor, with some insiders expecting both electorates to change hands.

The underlying internal polling — including its sample size, fieldwork dates, methodology and individual seat figures — has not been publicly released.

Frankston is held by Police Minister Paul Edbrooke, while Carrum is represented by Attorney-General and Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny. Both have represented their electorates since 2014 and were elevated or retained in senior roles when Premier Ben Carroll reshuffled his cabinet in August.

Neither seat would normally be considered marginal based on the 2022 election result.

Labor holds Frankston on a two-party-preferred margin of 8.7 percentage points and Carrum on about 9.8 points. Mordialloc is held by Labor on 8.2 points and Bentleigh on 8.0 points.

For Frankston or Carrum to change hands on a uniform swing, Labor would therefore need to suffer a substantial movement against it.

That is not impossible in the current political environment, but seat-level outcomes can vary considerably from statewide polling because of candidate recognition, local campaigns, preference flows and demographic differences.

The reported internal polling suggests Labor strategists are particularly concerned about Carrum.

Ms Kilkenny has been at the centre of some of the government’s most contested policy areas as Planning Minister and Attorney-General, including housing and planning reform. She has held Carrum since defeating Liberal MP Donna Bauer in 2014.

The electorate has moved between Labor and the Liberals several times. It was won by the Liberals during the 2010 change of government before returning to Labor four years later.

Mr Edbrooke has held Frankston for Labor since 2014 and was appointed Police, Crime Prevention, Emergency Services and Multicultural Affairs Minister in August.

Frankston has also historically changed hands with shifts in government, having been represented by both major parties over recent decades.

According to the report, Labor insiders believe Mr Edbrooke retains a strong personal standing locally but fear dissatisfaction with the wider Labor brand could overwhelm that advantage.

One unnamed Labor minister was quoted as saying:

“It’s clear we’ve lost the confidence of the public.”

The report also points to pressure in Mordialloc, represented by Local Government, Consumer Affairs and Renters Minister Tim Richardson, and Bentleigh, held by Housing Minister Nick Staikos.

Mr Richardson and Mr Staikos have both represented their electorates since 2014 and joined or remained in cabinet under Mr Carroll.

Labor sources reportedly believe Mordialloc could record a substantial movement towards the Liberals, while also seeing some shift towards the Greens, although party figures hope Mr Richardson’s local profile will help him retain support.

ABC election data puts Labor’s 2022 margin in Mordialloc at 8.2 percentage points. Mr Richardson is being challenged by Liberal candidate Paul O’Halloran, a long-serving Victoria Police officer, as well as One Nation candidate Nadia Ticehurst and other contenders.

Bentleigh is also expected by Labor insiders to experience a large swing, although the internal assessment reported by the Herald Sun was that Mr Staikos remained comparatively better placed to withstand it.

A Labor headquarters source pushed back against suggestions of an inevitable Sandbelt collapse, telling the newspaper the seats remained competitive and pointing to the government’s record of infrastructure and service investment along the Frankston line.

“The view within the party is that the sandbelt remains competitive,” the source said.

The internal anxiety comes as public polling also shows Labor facing a substantial statewide swing compared with its landslide 2022 result.

A RedBridge Group and Accent Research survey conducted between October 2 and 8 put the Coalition ahead of Labor 56–44 on a two-party-preferred basis.

The poll surveyed 1,008 Victorian voters and reported a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points for the full sample. The researchers cautioned that margins of error are larger for demographic and geographic subsets.

A collection of recent Victorian polling compiled by Ace Strategies has shown considerable variation between pollsters, but its post-leadership-change average places the Coalition ahead on two-party-preferred voting.

Polling averages, however, cannot reliably determine the outcome of individual electorates, particularly where margins, candidates and preference flows differ substantially.

RedBridge Group founder Kos Samaras told the Herald Sun that Labor’s support was falling sharply in parts of Melbourne’s south-east and north.

He said electorates including Frankston and Carrum increasingly resembled outer-suburban seats where voters were moving strongly away from Labor.

The reported problems are not confined to the Sandbelt.

Labor insiders are also watching Melbourne’s north-west, including Sydenham, Melton and Kororoit, where One Nation is attempting to establish itself alongside Labor and the Liberals.

Those seats start from very different positions.

Labor holds Melton on a margin of 4.6 percentage points and Sydenham on 8.8 points, while Kororoit — represented by Youth, Carers and Volunteers Minister Luba Grigorovitch — has a much larger Labor margin of 14.5 points based on the 2022 result.

Liberal strategists quoted in the report said their principal targets remained seats including Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Bayswater.

Those electorates are held by Labor on margins ranging from 3.3 points in Glen Waverley to 7.2 points in Box Hill and Ashwood, making them mathematically easier targets than some of the Sandbelt seats if there were a broadly uniform swing.

Shadow Attorney-General James Newbury seized on the reported Labor leaks, saying they reflected voter dissatisfaction with the government’s record on crime, roads and taxation.

Labor, meanwhile, is arguing that its local MPs, infrastructure record and incumbency will matter more than statewide political commentary when voters make their decisions.

The contest in the south-east will be closely watched because the Sandbelt has played an important role in previous Victorian elections.

Carrum and Frankston both shifted to the Liberals at the 2010 election that brought Ted Baillieu to government, before returning to Labor in 2014 when Daniel Andrews won office.

The reported internal polling therefore provides a warning for Labor.

With more than a month remaining before election day — and formal nominations not closing until November 9 — the scale and distribution of any swing will ultimately determine whether senior ministers are genuinely at risk or whether Labor’s local incumbents can withstand a statewide movement against the government.

Support our Journalism

No-nonsense journalism. No paywalls. Whether you’re in Australia, the UK, Canada, the USA, or India, you can support The Australia Today by taking a paid subscription via Patreon or donating via PayPal — and help keep honest, fearless journalism alive.