Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has refused to resign and declared she will contest any leadership ballot after Deputy Premier Ben Carroll formally announced he would challenge her for control of the Labor Party.
The move has plunged the Victorian government into an open leadership war just four months before the November state election, ending weeks of speculation about whether discontent inside Labor would develop into a formal attempt to remove the Premier.
Mr Carroll confirmed on Monday that colleagues had approached him and asked him to nominate after concluding Ms Allan no longer commanded majority support in the parliamentary caucus.
“It is clear that the Premier has lost the majority of our Caucus,” Mr Carroll said in a statement.
He said he had subsequently met Ms Allan and informed her that he would nominate for the leadership, arguing the consequences of the November election were too serious to ignore.
A cross-factional delegation met Ms Allan before Monday’s scheduled cabinet meeting and urged her to stand aside. The group reportedly included ministers Ingrid Stitt, Gabrielle Williams, Anthony Carbines and Lizzie Blandthorn, along with backbencher Mathew Hilakari.
The involvement of MPs from Ms Allan’s own Socialist Left faction is central to the challenge. Labor’s Right did not have enough votes to remove the Premier without support from sections of the Left, which has controlled the parliamentary numbers since the party’s internal realignment after the 2022 election.
Ms Allan rejected the delegation’s request and reportedly asked the ministers involved to resign from cabinet because they no longer supported her leadership. They refused to do so, setting up an extraordinary situation in which senior ministers remain in a government led by a Premier they are actively attempting to replace.
Rather than allowing Mr Carroll to take the leadership uncontested, Ms Allan wrote to Victorian Labor state secretary Steve Staikos and formally declared her intention to stand in any leadership election.
She also asked the party organisation to prepare for a ballot should one be triggered, making clear that she intends to force her opponents to remove her through the party’s formal processes rather than leave voluntarily.
The decision represents a sharp escalation in the crisis.
Labor figures pushing for change had hoped Ms Allan would accept that she had lost caucus support and stand aside, allowing Mr Carroll to take over quickly and begin rebuilding the government’s campaign.
Instead, a contested election could involve both Labor MPs and rank-and-file party members. Under the party’s leadership arrangements, the parliamentary caucus and ordinary members would each carry 50 per cent of the final result, potentially producing a weeks-long campaign at a time when Labor is already preparing for a difficult state election.
The rules have not previously been tested in a Victorian Labor leadership contest. A prolonged ballot would leave Ms Allan and Mr Carroll publicly campaigning against each other while ministers, MPs, unions and party branches were forced to choose sides.
Political commentators argued Ms Allan’s decision showed she would not make the transition easy for her challengers, despite expectations that her longstanding loyalty to Labor would eventually lead her to stand aside to avoid further damage.
Her decision to fight means the dispute is no longer simply about who has the most support in Tuesday’s caucus meeting. It could become a wider battle over the future direction of the Victorian Labor Party and responsibility for its decline in public support.
Mr Carroll’s declaration is also a dramatic reversal.
Just six weeks ago, he stood beside Ms Allan and publicly ruled out challenging her, saying he was proud to support her leadership. At that stage, internal discussions about replacing the Premier failed to develop into a contest because no alternative candidate was prepared to nominate.
Mr Carroll now says circumstances have changed and the Premier has lost the confidence of most Labor MPs.
His supporters believe the Niddrie MP and Education Minister could give Labor a chance to reset its position on integrity, public finances, business confidence and the continuing dispute with Victorian teachers.
It is understood that a Carroll-led government would consider establishing a royal commission into alleged corruption and organised crime connected to the construction industry, seek to settle the teachers’ dispute and attempt to rebuild Labor’s standing with Victorian businesses. Mr Carroll has not yet released a full leadership platform.
Allegations surrounding the CFMEU and Victoria’s taxpayer-funded Big Build have been a major source of pressure on Ms Allan, who previously served as transport infrastructure minister while the construction program expanded.
The Premier has acknowledged that criminals operated on some Victorian construction sites and apologised for the activity, but she has repeatedly rejected calls for a royal commission. She argues police investigations, stronger regulatory powers and action by integrity agencies are a faster and more effective response.
Some Labor MPs believe that position has become politically unsustainable and that the government has failed to convince voters it fully understands the scale of the problem.
The leadership crisis has been sharpened by polling published on Monday showing the Coalition ahead of Labor by 52 to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
The Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights for The Australian, placed the Coalition on a primary vote of 31 per cent, Labor on 28 per cent and One Nation on 19 per cent.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson led Ms Allan by 51 to 32 per cent as preferred premier, while 71 per cent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with Ms Allan’s performance.
The figures follow other surveys showing Labor losing support to the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens, particularly in outer-suburban and regional electorates.
Labor won 56 lower house seats at the 2022 election, but MPs now fear a fall in the party’s primary vote could place seats once considered safe within reach of the opposition or minor parties.
Ms Allan’s supporters dispute claims that the entire Left faction has turned against her. One minister told The Guardian that MPs within the faction had not been uniformly consulted and there was no consolidated position supporting her removal.
Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny has continued to back Ms Allan, dismissing the leadership discussion as “idle gossip” that distracts the government from the concerns of Victorians.
The Premier’s allies will now attempt to challenge Mr Carroll’s assertion that she has lost a majority of caucus.
Those seeking to remove her face the risk of overstating their numbers before a formal vote. A failed spill would leave Mr Carroll politically damaged and could temporarily strengthen Ms Allan, although the public split would be difficult to repair.
A successful spill motion would start the process of electing a new leader. With Ms Allan and Mr Carroll both declaring their intention to contest, neither side can now assume the matter will be resolved through a quick caucus transition.
Parliament resumes on Tuesday, July 28, providing the first opportunity for Labor MPs to meet in person and test whether the factional agreements reached over the weekend translate into firm votes.
The challenge is one of the most serious internal confrontations faced by Victorian Labor since it returned to government in 2014.
Ms Allan became Premier in September 2023 following Daniel Andrews’ resignation. She had previously served as his deputy and held several senior portfolios during Labor’s years in office.
Mr Carroll became Deputy Premier during the same transition and has served in portfolios including education, public transport, industry and justice.
His decision to challenge means Labor can no longer maintain that leadership concerns are limited to anonymous internal complaints. The Deputy Premier has publicly declared that the Premier has lost caucus support, while Ms Allan has responded by preparing to fight him through the party’s membership.
The Victorian election is scheduled for Saturday, November 28. The party that wins majority support in the Legislative Assembly will form government.
Labor must now decide whether to proceed under a Premier who insists she can still lead the party to a fourth consecutive term or replace her with a deputy who argues that change is necessary to prevent defeat.
Either path carries enormous risk.
Removing Ms Allan could reinforce the Coalition’s argument that Labor is divided and consumed by its own survival. Keeping her could leave the party campaigning under a leader whom her deputy and a cross-factional group of ministers have publicly declared no longer commands majority support.
The speculation has become a contest. The only remaining questions are when the ballot will be triggered, how long it will take and whether Labor can emerge from it united enough to fight an election less than four months away.
Support our Journalism
No-nonsense journalism. No paywalls. Whether you’re in Australia, the UK, Canada, the USA, or India, you can support The Australia Today by taking a paid subscription via Patreon or donating via PayPal — and help keep honest, fearless journalism alive.
