Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has begun door-knocking in her Bendigo East electorate months before the state election, in a sign Labor is taking seriously reports that its leader could face a contest in a seat she has held for more than two decades.

Security camera footage obtained by 7News and reported by news.com.au showed Allan walking through Bendigo East with campaign material, as voters prepare for Victoria’s state election on 28 November. The Premier has represented Bendigo East since Labor’s 1999 election victory, but reports of internal Labor polling suggest the seat is no longer being treated as safely as it once was.

The footage has sharpened attention on Allan’s political standing at a time when public polling shows Labor facing a tougher path to a fourth term in government. One local told 7News they “pretty much closed the door in her face”, while another reportedly described the early campaigning as smelling like “desperation”.

Bendigo East has long been regarded as Labor territory. At the 2022 state election, Allan won 48.3 per cent of the first preference vote, while the Liberal candidate received 27.4 per cent. One Nation received 5.7 per cent in the seat.

The ABC’s 2022 election guide described Bendigo East as one of the regional seats that swung strongly to Labor in 1999, helping defeat the Kennett government, and noted that since then Labor’s vote in the seat had generally sat above the party’s statewide support.

But the political environment has shifted sharply since Labor’s 2022 win. A Freshwater Strategy poll commissioned by the Herald Sun in March had the Coalition leading Labor 52 to 48 on a two-party-preferred basis. Poll Bludger reported the result as a move away from a tied contest a month earlier, with Allan’s personal standing weighing on Labor’s vote.

Freshwater Strategy also said Labor’s primary vote had fallen to 27 per cent, with 58 per cent of voters saying Labor should change leader before the November election. The same polling put Allan’s approval rating at negative 32.

A separate DemosAU ranking in March placed Allan at the bottom of the national leaderboard for state premiers, with the pollster saying she was the least liked state leader in the country.

Labor is also facing pressure from the rise of One Nation in Victoria, particularly in regional and peri-urban areas. Roy Morgan polling in April put Labor on 25.5 per cent of the primary vote, just ahead of One Nation on 24.5 per cent and the Coalition on 24 per cent, with 26 per cent backing other parties and independents.

That fractured vote is one reason Allan’s local campaigning is being watched closely. While Bendigo East is still a Labor-held seat, a collapse in Labor’s primary vote, a stronger protest vote, and preference flows could make contests in once-comfortable seats harder to predict.

The Premier’s early return to the streets also comes after criticism over the taxpayer-funded promotion of her social media content. Sky News reported that documents released under freedom of information laws showed Allan’s office spent $127,894 on Facebook and Instagram advertising between July 2025 and March 2026, an average of almost $16,000 a month.

The Opposition has used the spending to argue the Premier is trying to repair her personal standing at public expense, while Labor would argue government advertising and ministerial communication are routine parts of informing the public about policies, services and announcements.

The pressure on Allan is being driven by a wider set of voter concerns. Roy Morgan’s April state voting analysis showed a highly unsettled Victorian electorate, while recent reporting has pointed to public worries over debt, budget management, integrity, crime, health services and cost-of-living pressure.

The government is also defending its record after years of major infrastructure spending, pandemic-era debt, public sector pressure and concern over the cost of living. Labor will campaign on its record in transport, health, education, energy and jobs, while the Coalition under Jess Wilson is seeking to frame the election around debt, taxes, crime, integrity and service delivery.

For Allan, the risk is personal as well as political. Losing government would end Labor’s 12-year hold on power in Victoria. Losing Bendigo East would be far more damaging, turning the Premier’s own seat into the symbol of a statewide backlash.

The sight of a sitting Premier door-knocking months before polling day may also be read two ways. To supporters, it shows Allan is prepared to speak directly to voters rather than campaign from Spring Street. To critics, it suggests Labor knows even its safest ground can no longer be taken for granted.

With the election still months away, Bendigo East is likely to become one of Victoria’s most watched contests. What was once a Labor stronghold is now being treated as a test of whether Allan can rebuild trust with voters before they head to the polls.

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