Khan is on course to overtake Smith as the most common surname among newborns in England and Wales as early as 2027, reflecting changing birth patterns and the impact of migration, according to an analysis of official data by The Telegraph.
Smith, historically one of England’s most common surnames, has been losing ground over the past three decades, while Khan has more than doubled in popularity over the same period.
As per The Telegraph, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show that 4,102 babies born in England and Wales in 2025 were registered with the surname Smith, compared with 3,772 with Khan — a difference of just 330.
Based on the recent trends, Smith’s average annual decline of 4 per cent and Khan’s average annual increase of 1.9 per cent suggest the long-standing ranking could be reversed by 2027.
The figures mark a significant shift from 1996, when Smith was ahead of Khan by 5,464 newborns.
Nuni Jorgensen, a researcher at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, told The Telegraph that several factors were contributing to the changing distribution of surnames.
“Immigration from south Asian countries to the UK has risen over the past few years, particularly since 2021.”
Jorgensen also pointed to differences in fertility rates, noting that UK-born women have recently been having fewer children, increasing the share of births to migrant mothers.
She added that some communities have a smaller pool of commonly used surnames, making individual names more prevalent. However, she cautioned that there was insufficient data to determine how much this factor contributed specifically to the popularity of Khan or Smith.
The analysis also found that traditionally British surnames had lost ground in the newborn rankings over the past 30 years.
In 1996, all names in the top 10 were of established British origin, with Smith, Jones and Williams occupying the first three positions. By 2025, only three names in the top 10 came from that background, while Khan, Ahmed, Singh and Hussein had risen into the rankings.
Ibrahim recorded one of the most notable rises, climbing from 563rd in 1996 to 73rd in 2025.
Meanwhile, several traditionally British surnames recorded substantial declines among newborns, including Long, down 55 per cent since 1996; Potter, down 54 per cent; Carr, down 52 per cent; and Hammond, down 52 per cent.
The surname trends coincide with changes in the UK’s population and the origins of mothers giving birth.
Census figures show that the proportion of people identifying as Asian rose from 4.4 per cent in 2001 to 7.5 per cent in 2011 and 9.3 per cent in 2021.
Since 2008, births to UK-born mothers have fallen by 29 per cent, while births to foreign-born mothers have increased by 18 per cent. Births to mothers born in Asia and the Middle East rose by 41 per cent over the same period.
Rob Bates, research director at the Centre for Migration Control and a critic of successive governments’ migration policies, described the changes as “unprecedented demographic change”. He argued that successive governments had failed to respond adequately to public concerns about immigration.
The possible rise of Khan to the top of the newborn surname rankings would mark a reversal of a pattern documented for generations. Historical estimates put the number of people named Smith in England at 253,600 in 1853, ahead of Jones and Williams.
The surname shift follows a similar trend in first names. Muhammad became the most popular boys’ name in England and Wales in 2023, according to the ONS, with more than 4,600 registrations. It retained the top position in 2024 and 2025.
Different spellings, including Mohammed and Mohammad, also featured among the 100 most popular boys’ names.
The projected change in surname rankings is based on recent trends rather than a confirmed future outcome. Whether Khan overtakes Smith in 2027 will depend on how birth registrations evolve over the coming years.
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