Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken both Labor and the Coalition in Victoria for the first time, according to a new Australian Financial Review/Redbridge/Accent Research poll that shows Premier Jacinta Allan’s government on course for defeat at the November state election.
The survey of 5516 Victorians, conducted between June 17 and June 28, puts One Nation ahead on a primary vote of 27 per cent, with Labor and the Coalition tied on 26 per cent each. The Greens were unchanged on 13 per cent.
The result marks a dramatic shift in Victorian politics, with One Nation now polling ahead of both major parties in a state where it currently has no lower house MPs and only one upper house representative.
The poll’s margin of error was 1.4 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor 54-46, based on respondent-allocated preferences. But the three-candidate-preferred result shows a much more volatile contest, with Labor on 39.9 per cent, the Coalition on 30.1 per cent and One Nation on 29.9 per cent.
Redbridge director Tony Barry said Labor’s path to victory remained narrow but not impossible.
“For Labor to win this election, it will be like a Lazarus with a triple bypass plus a knee reconstruction, but there is a pathway if they can improve their primary vote position by a few more points,” Mr Barry told AFR.
The poll is particularly damaging for Ms Allan, whose net favourability has fallen to minus 42 per cent, placing her among the most unpopular state leaders in Australian polling history.
According to the AFR report, no premier has won an election with personal ratings that low. Only former Victorian premier John Cain and former Queensland premier Anna Bligh, both at minus 43, recorded worse numbers.
The figures are likely to alarm Labor MPs already concerned about the government’s chances of securing a fourth term.
Labor holds 54 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, compared with the Coalition’s 29. But the latest polling suggests the party’s large majority could be wiped out if current trends hold until polling day.
The survey was conducted during a turbulent period in Victorian politics.
Premier Allan had narrowly avoided a leadership challenge, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson was dealing with the fallout from Moira Deeming’s assault allegation against Matthew Guy. Victoria Police later cleared Mr Guy, and the Liberal Party is now expected to consider Ms Deeming’s future as a candidate.
At the same time, Pauline Hanson delivered a high-profile National Press Club address in which she attacked paid parental leave and argued for a “monocultural” Australia — comments that sparked national controversy but appear not to have derailed One Nation’s Victorian momentum.
One Nation’s support was strongest outside Melbourne’s inner suburbs.
The party recorded 34 per cent in rural electorates, 31 per cent in provincial seats and 28 per cent in outer metropolitan areas. Even in inner metropolitan seats, where its support is weakest, One Nation still polled 20 per cent.
The poll found One Nation voters were also the most committed. While half of all respondents said they were “solid” in their vote, 62 per cent of One Nation voters said their intention was firm.
Redbridge director Kos Samaras said the result highlighted the scale of Labor’s problem.
“The tight three-candidate-preferred count shows everything is so finely balanced and there are so many variables in the mix,” Mr Samaras said.
“However, given the size of the other two conservative parties, it’s very difficult for Labor to be re-elected on these numbers.”
Mr Samaras said Labor would need to lift its primary vote by at least 4 percentage points to create a credible path to victory.
But he also warned that the Coalition may struggle to form a majority government on its current primary vote and could be forced to rely on One Nation for supply if it wins government.
Accent Research principal Shaun Ratcliff said the Coalition’s future depended heavily on whether it could finish in the top two on first preferences in enough seats.
If it does, he said, it could benefit from both Labor and One Nation preferences.
“All three parties are within the margin of error, so there is a danger the Coalition might just miss out,” Mr Ratcliff said.
“It could be either a really good election for the Coalition or a really bad one.”
The poll also shows voters do not believe Labor is focused on the right issues.
When asked which parties were most focused on the right issues, the Liberals recorded a net agree score of 7, One Nation was neutral at 0, the Nationals were at minus 8, the Greens at minus 12, and Labor at minus 17.
The result points to a collapse in voter confidence in the Allan government, with cost of living, crime, debt, infrastructure blowouts and union-linked corruption allegations all weighing heavily on Labor.
Ms Allan has faced renewed scrutiny over reports that the government knew CFMEU influence on major infrastructure sites was driving up costs but directed contractors to pay up.
Labor MPs quoted anonymously in the AFR described the party’s primary vote as “grim” and “dire”, with one saying “Allan has to go”.
An expected leadership spill earlier this month was abandoned when Deputy Premier Ben Carroll declined to challenge. But some MPs reportedly believe there could be one final opportunity to move against Ms Allan when parliament returns from its winter break on July 28.
The poll is also not entirely good news for the Coalition.
While the opposition leads Labor 54-46 on a two-party basis, its primary vote has fallen 2 points since February to 26 per cent.
The party has again been distracted by internal conflict, this time over the Deeming-Guy dispute. Ms Deeming has refused to apologise to Mr Guy after police dismissed her complaint, and Liberal sources expect the party’s state executive to consider disendorsing her from the No. 1 upper house position in the Western Metropolitan Region.
Ms Wilson’s personal approval rating is far stronger than Ms Allan’s, with a net rating of plus 13. Ms Hanson recorded minus 9.
But the rise of One Nation presents a strategic nightmare for both major parties.
For Labor, One Nation is eating into the outer suburban and regional vote that once helped Daniel Andrews build a majority. For the Coalition, One Nation threatens to split the conservative and anti-Labor vote, making it harder for the Liberals and Nationals to win seats outright.
A separate DemosAU/PremierNational poll earlier in June also showed Labor slipping behind both the Coalition and One Nation in Victoria, with the Coalition on 30 per cent, One Nation on 23 per cent and Labor on 21 per cent.
Roy Morgan polling in February similarly found One Nation ahead of both major parties in Victoria, with One Nation on 26.5 per cent, Labor on 25.5 per cent and the Coalition on 21.5 per cent.
The latest AFR/Redbridge/Accent poll suggests that trend has now hardened into a genuine three-way contest.
The Victorian election will be held on November 28.
If the numbers hold, Labor faces the real prospect of being turfed out after 12 years in power, the Coalition faces the possibility of governing only with One Nation support, and One Nation could emerge as a defining force in Victorian politics for the first time.
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