Labor entered the 2025 federal election with a narrow primary vote lift, yet the Australian Election Study (AES) shows the party won on shifting political ground – capturing voters’ confidence on economic management for the first time in nearly 40 years and capitalising on public disillusionment with the Coalition’s leadership and policy positions.
The long-running AES, conducted after every federal election since 1987, reveals Labor was the preferred party across nine of ten major policy areas. Even on the economy and taxation – traditionally Coalition-dominated territory – Labor gained a decisive edge. Cost-of-living pressures shaped the campaign, with two in three voters citing an economic concern as their top issue. Housing affordability was a particular worry for renters, ranking as their second-highest priority.
Voters were sharply divided on nuclear energy, with near-equal proportions supporting and opposing its introduction, and more than half of respondents favouring a shift to a republic. Support for a Citizens’ Assembly and longer, four-year parliamentary terms also reflected a public increasingly open to democratic reforms.
The AES shows Anthony Albanese significantly outperformed Peter Dutton on every leadership attribute measured, from trust and competence to compassion. Just 8% of voters believed Dutton won the leaders’ debates – the lowest figure ever recorded in the study. His decision to oppose Labor’s tax cuts, coupled with the Coalition’s fuel excise pledge, failed to resonate amid deep voter anxiety about household finances. Dutton’s unpopularity contributed to Labor’s sweeping victory and the loss of his own seat.
This was an election shaped by both immediate and long-term shifts. Short-term dynamics included the global turbulence created by US trade tariffs imposed during the campaign and sharp contrasts in economic messaging. But generational change provided the deeper backdrop. Millennials – now in their 30s and 40s – are not becoming more conservative with age. Instead, they have moved further left, with Coalition support among this cohort dropping from 38% in 2016 to 21% in 2025. Women also continued to drift away from the Liberal–National parties, delivering the Coalition its lowest share of female votes on record.
Partisan dealignment reached a historic high: one-quarter of voters said they did not feel close to any party, while only one-third reported always voting the same way. This volatility fuelled the rise of independents, many backed by voters who had previously supported Labor or the Greens and were strategically seeking to unseat incumbents.
Despite modest improvements since the low-trust 2010s, only 32% of voters expressed trust in government, and voluntary turnout intent fell to its lowest level on record. Internationally, faith in the US security guarantee plunged from 73% in 2022 to 54%, although more Australians still believed AUKUS made the country safer rather than less safe.
The AES findings underscore the complex forces behind Labor’s 94-seat landslide: a combination of leadership contrast, shifting policy confidence, demographic realignment, and weakening ties to the major parties. While Labor’s victory was emphatic, the electorate that delivered it is more fragmented, mobile and sceptical than at any point since the study began nearly four decades ago.
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