Opposition Leader Peter Dutton began his final campaign day before Saturday’s federal poll with a pre-dawn visit to a fresh-produce market in Adelaide’s northern suburbs, hoping to squeeze out every vote as the Coalition chases an unlikely comeback. With early voting already at record levels, Mr Dutton’s blitz through marginal electorates belies the steep uphill battle he faces in overturning Labor’s commanding lead in the polls.
At the market, stalls were still setting out seasonal fruit when Mr Dutton arrived, shaking hands with growers and shoppers alike. He pressed home his message that only the Coalition could tame inflation, reduce energy bills and restore fiscal discipline after what he characterised as three years of “Labor’s reckless spending.”
But electoral modelling suggests that such pitches may come too late to yield significant gains.
In the seat of Makin held by Labor’s Tony Zappia on a comfortable 10.8 percentage-point margin, Mr Dutton’s chances are all but non-existent. ABC analysis shows the suburban Adelaide seat, held by Mr Zappia since 2007, is “very likely” to stay in Labor hands this weekend. Even the most optimistic internal Coalition forecasts concede that Makin is beyond reach.
Nationwide, pollster YouGov’s latest multi-round marginal-relevance model projects the Coalition winning just 47 seats against Labor’s 84 in the 150-member House of Representatives. That central estimate leaves the Coalition well short of the 76 seats needed for government and marks a clear reversal of momentum since early in the campaign.
Undeterred, Mr Dutton has marshalled a final push into key battlegrounds, from outer-metro New South Wales to the western suburbs of Melbourne, arguing that “quiet Australians” could yet deliver an upset akin to 2019’s surprise result. But with more than five million ballots already cast and opinion polls consistently favouring Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the Coalition’s pathway to power narrows by the hour.
“Every vote will count, and we’re fighting for every one,” Mr Dutton told reporters.
“Labor has run the economy off-track—families deserve relief, not more debt.”
Yet senior strategists concede that only a large swing in late undecided voters can prevent Labor from increasing its majority.
As the campaign enters its final hours, the contrast between a disciplined Labor ground operation and the Coalition’s frantic barnstorming underscores the stakes of Saturday’s vote. For Mr Dutton, a victory lap this weekend would require defying both the polls and the entrenched margins of seats like Makin. With little margin for error, every handshake, every speech and every early vote remains vital—if perhaps too little, too late.
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