Victorian Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 22 per cent in a new Lighthouse tracking poll, placing it behind One Nation and increasing pressure on Premier Ben Carroll ahead of the November 28 election.

The survey, published by the Herald Sun, puts the Liberal Party on 31 per cent, One Nation on 23 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent. Another 10 per cent of respondents favour other parties or independents.

Conducted by News Corp Australia’s Growth Intelligence Centre, the poll adds to evidence that Labor faces a difficult battle to retain government after 12 years in office.

The survey questioned 1,289 voters between October 19 and November 1 across two weekly waves. Its weighted effective sample was 887, with a reported margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

While One Nation’s one-point advantage over Labor is too narrow to establish a clear lead, the figures show the government struggling to attract first preferences as the campaign enters its final weeks.

Labor’s position contrasts sharply with its 2022 election result. Victorian Electoral Commission figures show the party secured 37.03 per cent of first preferences and won 56 lower house seats. A primary vote of 22 per cent would represent a decline of about 15 percentage points.

The Lighthouse poll also found a substantial difference in voters’ assessments of the two major party leaders.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson recorded a net favourability rating of plus nine, compared with minus 21 for Carroll.

According to the Herald Sun’s report, only 23 per cent of respondents approved of the government and believed it deserved re-election.

The survey also suggested Labor’s remaining supporters were less certain about their voting intentions than those backing its opponents.

Among respondents intending to vote Labor, 47 per cent said they were “very” certain of their choice. That compared with 59 per cent of Coalition supporters and 64 per cent of One Nation supporters.

Separate research from Roy Morgan reinforces the picture of a government under electoral pressure.

Its October 26–29 SMS survey of 3,610 Victorian electors put the Coalition on 29.5 per cent, Labor on 22.5 per cent, One Nation on 22 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Roy Morgan recorded a Coalition lead of 56 per cent to Labor’s 44 per cent. Labor’s primary vote was unchanged from its earlier October survey, while the Coalition gained 3.5 percentage points.

The polling comes as Labor directs digital advertising towards electorates traditionally regarded as strong territory.

The Herald Sun’s analysis of Google advertising spending identified Dandenong, Kalkallo, Cranbourne, Werribee and Point Cook among seats receiving substantial attention. Carroll’s electorate of Niddrie was also being targeted.

The newspaper reported that Dandenong and Kalkallo were held on margins of 18.3 and 16.5 per cent respectively, placing them well outside the usual marginal-seat battleground.

Monash University political scientist Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian told the Herald Sun that the spending suggested concern within Labor about defending its heartland.

“To be spending money in Dandenong or Kalkallo – these are on very big margins and normally wouldn’t even be in any discussion about being lost,” he said.

Advertising spending does not establish that a seat will change hands, but the reported targeting indicates Labor is investing campaign resources across a broad defensive front.

The final result will depend on individual electorate contests and preference flows. Under Victoria’s preferential voting system, lower house candidates must secure an absolute majority after preferences are distributed where necessary.

Roy Morgan has cautioned that the highly contested nature of several seats and the challenge posed by One Nation mean a Coalition majority remains uncertain despite its polling advantage.

Victorians begin voting early on Wednesday, November 18, ahead of election day on Saturday, November 28.

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