Are we heading towards hung Parliaments as Labor’s primary vote declines and Coalition gains slight ground?

The poll underscores a growing trend of voter disaffection with the major parties

The most recent Newspoll results have indicated a slight shift in political preferences among Australian voters, with the Federal Labor party experiencing a dip in its primary vote and the Coalition seeing a marginal increase. Despite these changes, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues to hold a significant lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the preferred prime minister rankings.

Conducted for The Australian, the poll reveals a one-point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 32%, while the Coalition’s vote has improved by a point, reaching 37%. Consequently, Labor’s lead over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis has narrowed to 51-49%, down from the 52.1% to 47.9% victory margin in the last federal election.

Newly Elected MP of Aston Mary Doyle woth PM Anthony Albanese; Image Source: Victorian Labor
Newly Elected MP of Aston Mary Doyle woth PM Anthony Albanese; Image Source: Victorian Labor

The poll also underscores a growing trend of voter disaffection with the major parties, with a combined 31% of respondents indicating their support for neither Labor nor the Coalition. This sentiment has contributed to a consolidated support rate of 69% for the two major parties, highlighting the continuing drift towards minor parties and independents.

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In terms of minor parties, the Greens have seen a one-point increase to 13%, and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has also gained a point, reaching 7%. Meanwhile, support for other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, has decreased by two points to 11%.

Image source: Peter Dutton (Source: Twitter)

The leadership approval ratings presented by Newspoll suggest stability over the past month, with minimal fluctuations. Albanese’s approval rating marginally increased by one point to 44%, with his dissatisfaction rating holding steady at 51%, resulting in a net approval rating of minus seven. Dutton’s approval rating remained unchanged at 37%, though his disapproval rating edged up by one point to 52%, leaving him with a net approval rating of minus fifteen.

In the direct comparison of leadership, Albanese has strengthened his position as the preferred prime minister, gaining a point to reach 48%, whereas Dutton has slightly declined by a point to 34%. With 18% of voters undecided, it appears that while the contest for preferred prime minister remains relatively unchanged, the overall political landscape is shifting subtly.

This Newspoll, surveying 1,223 voters nationally from March 18 to 22, captures a snapshot of Australian electoral sentiment, signalling a competitive political environment as parties and leaders vie for public support.

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