Australia’s migration intake is continuing to outstrip the supply of new housing, with the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) claiming the Albanese Government’s pledge to ease housing pressures by reducing migration has been undermined by the latest official figures.
New analysis by the IPA, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data for the year to March 2026, found that net permanent and long-term overseas arrivals significantly exceeded the number of newly supplied homes.
According to the analysis, Australia added 174,500 dwellings in the 12 months to March 2026, while net permanent and long-term overseas arrivals reached 489,300 over the same period.
For the March quarter alone, net housing supply increased by 54,200 dwellings, compared with 193,780 net permanent and long-term arrivals.
IPA Senior Fellow Dr Kevin You said the figures highlighted a growing mismatch between population growth and housing construction.
“The government’s commitment to cut migration in order to get more Australians into homes has been shattered by the latest official data showing net permanent and long-term overseas intake has about tripled housing supply over the year to March 2026.”
He noted that housing construction remains below levels recorded a decade ago. In the year to March 2016, Australia added 204,400 dwellings, around 14.6 per cent more than the current annual supply.
At the same time, migration levels have surged. Net migrant arrivals increased from 247,290 in the year to March 2016 to approximately 486,300 in the year to March 2026, an increase of nearly 97 per cent.
“We are building fewer homes than we did a decade ago, but we are bringing in more migrants than ever before. This is why young Australians are struggling to get a house of their own.”
The latest ABS population data showed Australia’s population grew by 412,500 people in the year to December 2025, reaching 27.8 million. Natural increase, the difference between births and deaths, accounted for 111,500 people, while net overseas migration contributed the remainder.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has argued that migration is already moderating from its post-pandemic peak. “Migration was surging when we came to office and it has now moderated substantially,” Dr Chalmers said.
“The facts clearly show that new overseas migration is coming down under Labor and Treasury is forecasting it to go even lower in the coming years.”
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has also pointed to a decline in migration numbers, saying the government had reduced migration by 45 per cent from its 2023 peak and expected further reductions in line with Treasury forecasts.
However, IPA research fellow Saxon Davidson argued there is little incentive for the government to reduce migration significantly while the economy remains weak.
“Particularly because, when you look at our overall economic performance, the only reason that we’re not in an overall economic recession is because of these elevated migration numbers,” Mr Davidson said.
“So I don’t see any incentive for this government to lower migration and I suspect that it will remain at around the 300,000 mark for every financial and calendar year for the time being.”
Davidson warned that a substantial reduction in migration could expose deeper weaknesses in the economy.
“If immigration were substantially cut, Australia faced the prospect of a real recession.”
The debate over migration levels is expected to remain a key political issue, with both the Coalition and One Nation arguing that population growth is placing unsustainable pressure on housing, infrastructure and public services.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson recently argued that current immigration settings were contributing to the nation’s housing crisis, while Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has proposed linking migration levels more closely to housing construction and tightening visa enforcement.
Despite the downward trend in migration since the post-pandemic surge, critics argue that housing supply continues to lag well behind population growth, adding further pressure to an already strained housing market.
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