Nearly 300 people are being managed through Australia’s national countering violent extremism programs. New figures indicate a sharp rise in cases. Security agencies confront a threat that increasingly involves young people, mixed ideologies, and rapid online radicalisation.
Department of Home Affairs figures reported on Monday show 298 people were participating in national countering violent extremism interventions as of June 30. This is up from 253 at the end of December 2025, an almost 18 per cent rise in six months.
The figures highlight a broader shift warned about by Australian intelligence and law-enforcement agencies. Terrorism threats are no longer confined to established extremist organisations or tightly organised cells. People can move from consuming extremist material to contemplating violence with far less warning.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said authorities were seeing both traditional forms of extremist recruitment and a newer pattern of radicalisation that often occurs online and outside established networks.
“It is involving younger people, disproportionately male and often with mixed ideologies, some of which are incoherent with each other,” Mr Burke said.
He said the growing number and complexity of cases was one reason the federal government was establishing a dedicated Counter Terrorism Online Centre.
The government announced in May that it would spend $74 million over two years on the centre, which will be jointly led by ASIO and the Australian Federal Police.
The centre is intended to give specialist intelligence officers and counter-terrorism investigators greater capacity to identify extremists in high-risk online spaces, assess threats and disrupt people attempting to recruit or incite others to violence.
Mr Burke said at the announcement that more young Australians were being radicalised online and that the process could occur extremely quickly.
“The capability we’ve always had to monitor extremists in the meeting room, now extends to the chat room,” he said.
The latest figures show how heavily younger Australians feature among those receiving counter-extremism interventions.
About 30 per cent of the 298 participants were aged 17 or younger. While another 26 per cent were aged between 18 and 24.
That means more than half of all people in the programs were younger than 25.
About 32 per cent were aged between 25 and 44, while 12 per cent were aged 45 or older.
Men and boys accounted for about 92 per cent of participants, compared with about eight per cent who were female.
The ideological picture is also increasingly difficult to categorise.
According to the figures, about 39 per cent of participants were associated with ideologically motivated violent extremism and 34 per cent with religiously motivated violent extremism.
Another 35 per cent were assessed as having mixed, unclear or unstable beliefs, or being motivated by a single-issue grievance.
Those categories can overlap, meaning they should not be read as mutually exclusive proportions of the overall caseload.
The pattern closely reflects warnings issued by ASIO.
When the national terrorism threat level was raised to “probable” in August 2024, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess warned that radicalisation was accelerating and that younger Australians were increasingly embracing violent extremism.
He said individuals were moving towards violence with little warning and were increasingly being motivated by a combination of personal grievances, religious extremism, nationalist and racist beliefs, conspiracy theories and misinformation circulating online.
The concern has intensified since the Bondi Beach terrorist attack on December 14, 2025.
Fifteen people were killed and dozens more wounded when two gunmen allegedly attacked a Jewish Chanukah event at Bondi Beach.
One of the alleged attackers, 50-year-old Sajid Akram, was shot dead by police at the scene.
His 24-year-old son, Naveed Akram, survived and was subsequently charged by the NSW Joint Counter Terrorism Team.
NSW Police said 15 people died in the attack and 41 people, including four children, were taken to hospital.
The attack triggered the establishment of the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion, led by former High Court justice Virginia Bell.
Its terms of reference include examining the circumstances surrounding the Bondi attack, what intelligence and law-enforcement agencies knew about the alleged attackers, whether information was adequately shared, whether agencies had sufficient powers and resources and how Australia can better counter religiously and ideologically motivated extremism.
The commission delivered an interim report in April containing 14 recommendations and has continued examining counter-terrorism resourcing, intelligence processes and the security environment in the lead-up to the attack.
The increase in people entering intervention programs does not mean that all 298 participants are terrorists or are suspected of planning terrorist attacks.
Australia’s countering violent extremism framework includes early intervention and disengagement programs aimed at people considered vulnerable to violent extremist ideology, as well as individuals presenting more developed risks.
The distinction is important because describing every participant as a “would-be terrorist” overstates what inclusion in such a program establishes.
Authorities can intervene before criminal conduct occurs, with the objective of preventing people from progressing towards violence.
Deakin University extremism researcher Dr Josh Roose said a combination of economic and social pressures could make some people more receptive to extremist narratives.
He pointed to cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, anxiety and a sense of disempowerment, combined with the amount of time people spend in largely unregulated online environments.
“That creates an environment that’s particularly receptive for extremist narratives and for people to be drawn in,” Dr Roose said.
Security officials have also warned that online radicalisation has changed the speed at which threats can develop.
At the launch of the Counter Terrorism Online Centre in May, AFP Commissioner Krissy Barrett said terrorists and extremists were manipulating vulnerable people at increasingly rapid speed.
She said a process that once could take months or years could now, in some cases, happen within days.
Mr Burke said artificial intelligence was likely to make that challenge still harder, potentially allowing extremists to use automated accounts, real-time translation and synthetic voices to interact with young people in gaming environments and encrypted platforms.
The new online centre will include an artificial intelligence capability and will work alongside existing Joint Counter Terrorism Teams rather than replace them.
Mr Burke said 19 of 31 people charged in recent terrorism-related matters had been minors, illustrating the extent to which youth radicalisation had become a national-security concern.
Opposition home affairs spokesman Senator Jonno Duniam described the growth in intervention numbers as deeply concerning.
He said deradicalisation programs had a role but argued they should not substitute for effective border controls, properly resourced security agencies, monitoring of high-risk individuals and stronger government decision-making.
The government maintains its new investment is intended to strengthen, rather than replace, those existing security capabilities.
The $74 million online centre forms part of a broader $80 million package over two years aimed at countering terrorism threats online and preventing violent extremism and youth radicalisation.
It follows a $106.2 million investment announced as part of the federal government’s A Safer Australia — Australia’s Counter-Terrorism and Violent Extremism Strategy 2025.
Security analysts say the central challenge is that Australia is no longer confronting a single dominant extremist ideology.
Religiously motivated violent extremism remains a concern, including threats inspired by Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
Nationalist and racist extremists continue to attract scrutiny, while authorities are also examining anarchist, revolutionary and other ideologically motivated violence.
At the May announcement, ASIO said its expanded online capability would be used against Sunni violent extremists, nationalist and racist violent extremists, anarchist and revolutionary extremists and others advocating politically motivated violence.
That increasingly fragmented threat environment makes detection more difficult because people do not necessarily join an organisation, follow a coherent ideology or display obvious real-world warning signs.
Some may instead move between conspiracy theories, racial hatred, religious extremism, misogyny, anti-government grievances or other forms of anger before settling on violence.
For intelligence agencies, the concern is not simply the size of Australia’s extremist population but the speed with which an individual can move from grievance to mobilisation.
And with more than half of those currently receiving counter-extremism interventions aged under 25, authorities are increasingly treating the online radicalisation of young Australians as one of the country’s most urgent national-security challenges.
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