The Minns government will cut car registration costs by $100 and freeze Opal fares as part of a $561.4 million cost-of-living package at the centre of Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s latest NSW budget.
The budget, delivered ahead of the March state election, is pitched as a restrained spending plan that offers short-term relief to households while preserving the government’s narrow path back to surplus in 2028.
Under the package, eligible motorists will receive a $100 rebate on car registration, while the weekly toll cap will be cut from $60 to $50. The government will also abolish toll administration fees and hold Opal fares at 2025 levels.
Mookhey said the measures were aimed at households being hit by higher fuel and transport costs.
He said in his budget speech,
“It is true that the price of oil is set far from this place, but the price to register a vehicle is decided right here.”
The government has framed the package as practical relief rather than broad stimulus, limiting the measures to one year as it tries to keep spending under control.
The budget shows NSW recorded a $3 billion deficit in 2025-26, slightly better than forecast in December. But the deficit is expected to widen to $2.3 billion in 2026-27, compared with the $1.1 billion forecast at the half-year update.
Despite that deterioration, Treasury is still projecting a slim $1.1 billion surplus in 2028, though Mookhey acknowledged “lots of things need to go right” for the state to get there.
The government says expense growth has been held to an average of 2.7 per cent over the next four years, the lowest rate of any NSW government over a comparable three-year period since records began in 1997.
But the budget is exposed to major risks, including inflation, interest rates, weaker housing revenue and global instability.
Treasury has modelled scenarios in which escalating conflict in the Middle East keeps oil prices elevated, pushing petrol prices as high as $3.38 a litre and diesel to $4.28 a litre next year.
The government is also forecasting an $8.4 billion fall in stamp duty and land tax revenue over four years, reflecting pressure in the property market.
That hit has been partly offset by stronger returns from OneFund, the state’s investment vehicle, which returned $4.6 billion in the past year. Revenue forecasts have been upgraded by $5.3 billion over the four years to 2029-30.
NSW is also expected to receive an extra $5.6 billion in GST revenue from the Commonwealth Grants Commission, helped by stronger property and mining revenues in other states and NSW’s relatively low share of Commonwealth infrastructure funding.
Beyond transport relief, the budget includes a major funding boost for domestic violence services, with $184.1 million in additional spending across prevention and support programs.
Mookhey described it as the biggest increase in domestic violence funding in NSW history, saying the sector had long deserved more support.
The government has also set aside about $6.4 billion over a decade to electrify the state’s 8000-bus fleet and encourage more bus manufacturing in NSW.
The budget gives Labor a clear pre-election message: modest relief for households, restraint on spending, and a promised return to surplus.
But that surplus remains fragile, dependent on inflation easing, global shocks fading, interest rates normalising and property revenue stabilising.
For NSW households, the immediate win is a cheaper rego bill and lower transport costs. For the government, the bigger test is whether a one-year cost-of-living package is enough to convince voters it has done enough before the election.
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