One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has predicted his party will finish first on primary votes in “many seats” at South Australia’s state election on 21 March, as the minor party banks on a polling surge but braces for preference deals that could still shut it out of the lower house.
Speaking on ABC’s Insiders, Joyce said he expected One Nation to lead the primary vote across parts of the state, but warned the final outcome would depend on how preferences flowed. “I will absolutely assure you that One Nation will poll number one in many seats,” he said, adding that other parties could combine to stop One Nation winning seats even if it led the count on first preferences.
The comments come as One Nation intensifies its South Australian push with Pauline Hanson and lead upper house candidate Cory Bernardi on a statewide tour in the final week of campaigning.
Bernardi said the party was seeing strong on-the-ground support but stressed that “representation in the parliament” was the real measure of success. “Whether we have one voice or two voices or five voices, we want to make sure it is the strongest voice for South Australians,” he said.
South Australia will elect 47 members to the House of Assembly and 11 members to the Legislative Council at the poll. One Nation has said it plans to run candidates across all 47 lower house seats, aiming to translate protest votes into seats in a system where preference flows can determine the winner in marginal contests.
Bernardi has repeatedly argued One Nation’s prospects will hinge on whether Labor and the Liberals direct preferences away from the party. He has labelled the major parties a “uni party” and said coordinated preferencing could block One Nation even where it polls strongly.
The preference question has sharpened after South Australia’s Liberal Party indicated it may direct preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens, saying its approach was to elect as many “centre-right” candidates as possible.
The statement, issued by Liberal state director Alexander Hyde, denied any deal with One Nation but left open the prospect of preference recommendations that could advantage the minor party in some contests.
Recent polling has fuelled the narrative of a disrupted contest. A Newspoll published in The Australian and reported by the ABC put Labor on 44 per cent primary support, One Nation on 24 per cent and the Liberals on 14 per cent, prompting analysts to question whether the Liberals could hold seats if those numbers were replicated on election day.
Premier Peter Malinauskas has refused to assume Labor is safe from an upset, saying his campaign was operating on the principle that “only the paranoid survive”. He also criticised One Nation’s policy platform, arguing voters would struggle to find detailed health, housing or economic plans beyond what he described as culture-war material.
Liberal leader Ashton Hurn has acknowledged One Nation appears to be “resonating” with some voters who feel frustrated with the major parties, but cautioned that polls can be wrong and said her focus remained on the Liberal campaign.
Bernardi, who is seeking to return to parliament in South Australia’s upper house, said his first move if elected would be to introduce legislation to repeal the state Voice to Parliament. He has also faced renewed scrutiny over past comments linking same-sex marriage to the acceptance of bestiality, telling the ABC he stood by what he said at the time, while conceding he would have preferred not to be drawn into the issue again during the campaign.
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