Will Labor easily win in Victoria?

The Victorian election will be held on November 26.

By Adrian Beaumont

A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 14-18 from a sample of 1,607, gave federal Labor 39% of the primary vote (down three since August), the Coalition 32% (up four), the Greens 10% (down two), One Nation 6% (up one), UAP 2% (steady), independents 8% (steady) and others 3% (steady).

Apart from near elections, Resolve does not give a two party estimate. My calculations from 2022 election preference flows say Labor would lead by 57-43 on this poll, a four-point gain for the Coalition since August.

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60% thought Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was doing a good job, and 24% a poor job for a net approval of +35, down four points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -12. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 53-19 (55-17 in August).

Labor’s lead over the Liberals on economic management was reduced to 33-30 from 39-30 in August, and their lead on keeping the cost of living low fell to 31-23 from 39-21.

I believe the August Resolve poll that gave Labor an estimated 61-39 lead was an outlier. The two Newspolls we have had so far, in early August and early September, have had Labor ahead by 56-44 and 57-43. Labor is still in “honeymoon” polling territory, but no other poll has given them the massive lead the last Resolve poll did.

Morgan and Essential on the republic

A Morgan SMS poll, conducted September 12 from a sample of 1,012, had 60% who thought Australia should remain a monarchy (up five since November 2012), while 40% wanted Australia to become a republic with an elected president (down five).

An Essential poll, conducted in the days before September 20 from a sample of 1,075, had 43% supporting Australia becoming a republic (down one since June) and 37% opposed (up three). This did not mention the monarchy as the alternative.

Four weeks ago, Essential asked voters to give a rating from 0 to 10 on various leaders. Ratings of 0-3 were classed as negative, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. Albanese had a 46% positive, 17% negative rating (43-23 previously), while Dutton was at 33% negative, 23% positive (34-26 previously).

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US President Joe Biden was at 30% positive, 28% negative, while Russian President Vladimir Putin was at 77% negative, 9% positive.

Members of the royal family were assessed, with Queen Elizabeth II at 71% positive, 8% negative, Prince William at 64% positive, 10% negative, King Charles III at 44% positive, 21% negative and Prince Harry at 42% postive, 22% negative. The country was split 50-50 on whether Charles should be our head of state.

23% said they were very interested in the queen’s passing and the king’s accession, 35% fairly interested, 25% not that interested and 17% not interested at all. 48% thought the media coverage had given them more information than they needed, 42% about the right amount and 10% less information than needed.

61% supported declaring a public holiday to honour the queen, 60% Albanese attending the funeral and 38% suspending federal parliament.

Morgan poll and climate change bill passes parliament

In last week’s Morgan weekly update video, federal Labor led by 53.5-46.5 from polling conducted September 5-11. This lead was unchanged from the previous week, but a 1.5-point gain for Labor since late August.

Labor’s bill to set a 43% emissions reduction target by 2030 passed federal parliament on September 8. It was passed by the Senate with minor amendments by 37 votes to 30, with support from the Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network and David Pocock. The amendments were then approved by the House of Representatives.

Victorian Essential and Morgan polls: Labor would easily win

The Victorian election will be held on November 26. An Essential poll for The Guardian, conducted August 31 to September 7 from a sample of 536, gave Labor 35.3% of the primary vote, the Coalition 32.2%, the Greens 10.2%, independents 8% and undecided 11.9%.

If undecided are excluded, the primary votes become 40.1% Labor, 36.5% Coalition, 11.6% Greens and 9.1% independents. With Labor ahead of the Coalition on primary votes and a solid Greens vote, Labor would win easily after preferences.

The linked article says Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s pledge to shelve the Suburban Rail Link appears to be resonating with voters. But by 44-25, voters supported construction beginning on stage one of the proposed 90 kilometre underground railway line.

A Victorian Morgan poll, conducted in August from a sample of 1,407, gave Labor a 58-42 lead, from primary votes of 36.5% Labor, 29% Coalition, 14% Greens and 20.5% for all Others. Unlike the SMS Victorian Morgan polls that have previously been released, this poll was conducted using telephone and online methods.

Many other parties were listed, but none got more than 2%. The highest polling Others were other parties (7.5%) and non-teal independents (5.5%).

NSW Essential poll: it’s close

The New South Wales election is in March 2023. An Essential poll for The Guardian, conducted August 31 to September 7 from a sample of 661, gave the Coalition 36.4% of the primary vote, Labor 32%, the Greens 8.5%, independents 6.8% and 12.8% undecided.

If undecided are excluded, primary votes become 41.7% Coalition, 36.7% Labor, 9.7% Greens and 7.8% independents. Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a 50-50 tie from these primary votes.

Tasmanian and WA byelection results

A byelection occurred September 10 in the Tasmanian Labor-held upper house seat of Pembroke. Labor defeated the Liberals by 63.3-36.7 after preferences, a 4.6% swing to Labor since the 2019 Pembroke contest.

Labor won 39.5% of the primary vote, the Liberals 28.8%, the Greens 19.3%, an independent 9.3% and the Shooters 3.2%. The result means Labor and four left-aligned independents retain an 8-7 majority in the Tasmanian upper house.

At last Saturday’s byelection for the Western Australian Nationals-held seat of North West Central, the Nationals defeated the Liberals by a 59.7-40.3 margin, after holding by 51.7-48.3 against Labor at the 2021 election. Primary votes were 40.2% Nationals (up 0.5%), 26.7% Liberals (up 18.8%), 12.6% Greens (up 8.5%) and 5.4% Legalise Cannabis.

Labor did not contest despite coming close at the massive March 2021 Labor landslide. Labor holds 53 of the 59 WA lower house seats, with the Nationals retaining four and the Liberals two.

Italian and Brazilian elections

I wrote for The Poll Bludger on Sunday that the far-right is likely to win this Sunday’s Italian election. The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is October 2, with a runoff October 30 if nobody wins a majority. Far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is likely to lose to the former leftist president.

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.