The Victorian Liberals have held the seat of Nepean in a by-election win that has steadied Opposition Leader Jess Wilson’s leadership, but the result has also sent a clear warning to both major parties ahead of November’s state election.
Former Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh is on track to enter state parliament after retaining the traditionally Liberal seat, which was vacated by former deputy Liberal leader and tennis player Sam Groth. The ABC called the contest for Marsh less than three hours after counting began on Saturday night.
The result gave the Liberals a much-needed victory after years of internal division and electoral setbacks. But the numbers beneath the win tell a more complicated story.
According to provisional Victorian Electoral Commission figures, Marsh was ahead on 38.53 per cent of the primary vote, followed by One Nation’s Darren Hercus on 24.66 per cent, independent Tracee Hutchison on 21.26 per cent and Greens candidate Sianan Healy on 9.28 per cent. The VEC’s indicative two-candidate-preferred count between Marsh and Hutchison had Marsh leading with 63.48 per cent.
The VEC has not yet formally declared a winner, with the commission saying the results remain provisional until all votes are counted and a candidate reaches an absolute majority. A full distribution of preferences may still be required before the official declaration.
For Wilson, the result offers breathing room. Nepean should have been a safe Liberal territory, but the absence of a Labor candidate, a strong One Nation vote and Hutchison’s independent campaign turned the by-election into a test of whether the opposition could hold its ground before the state election.
Wilson used the victory to point to local concerns, including Rosebud Hospital, road conditions and crime, while also warning her party not to treat the result as a sign that victory in November is assured. She said the Liberals still needed to win 16 seats to change government.
That is the harder reality behind the celebration. The Liberals won Nepean, but their primary vote fell by about 10 percentage points. In a seat the party has held for all but one term over the past four decades, that swing cannot be ignored.
The bigger shock was One Nation’s performance. Hercus attracted almost a quarter of first-preference votes, giving the party a result that will sharpen debate about preference flows, working-class frustration and the growing protest vote in Victoria. ABC analysis found One Nation performed strongly in areas such as Rosebud and Dromana, where cost-of-living pressure and distrust of major parties appear to have cut through.
Premier Jacinta Allan quickly moved to frame the result as a liability for the Liberals, arguing that the Nepean result showed the party could not govern without One Nation. Labor is now likely to use that message heavily in the lead-up to November.
But the result is not a simple win for Labor either. The government did not contest the by-election, which spared it a direct electoral test. Yet One Nation’s vote suggests voter anger is not confined to traditional Liberal territory. In outer-suburban and regional seats, similar frustrations could threaten Labor, Liberal and National-held electorates alike.
Political analysts have described the outcome as mixed for the opposition. Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said the Liberals would be relieved to have retained the seat, but the fall in their primary vote showed voters remained wary of the major parties. He said the result was a warning shot, even while it strengthened Wilson’s position.
The analysts and Liberal insiders were urging caution, noting that Nepean was already a wealthy and conservative-leaning seat, and that the party still suffered a primary-vote fall despite winning on preferences.
That is the real lesson from Nepean. The Liberals can claim the seat, Wilson can claim momentum, and Marsh can claim a clear path into parliament. But the result also shows that the road to government remains difficult.
The November election is no longer shaping up as a straightforward Labor versus Liberal contest. It is becoming a contest shaped by distrust, cost-of-living anger, minor-party disruption and voters who are no longer automatically returning to the major parties.
Nepean has given the Liberals a win. It has not given them a guarantee.
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