Support for Senator Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party may have reached its high point for now, with new polling showing a dip in primary vote and a decline in her personal likability, even as voters still see the party as a potential electoral force.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted mid-April, found One Nation’s primary support fell two points to 22 per cent — its lowest level in three months — as some voters drifted back to the major parties.
Separate Newspoll data also recorded a similar softening, suggesting the surge earlier this year may be stabilising.
Despite the decline, support remains well above the party’s 6.4 per cent result at the 2025 federal election, underlining how significantly its base has expanded.
Pollster Jim Reed told The Age that the plateau could reflect shifting voter priorities.
“We may have reached ‘peak Pauline’, at least for the time being,” he said, noting that issues such as the economy and international tensions — including conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran — were dominating public attention.
Hanson’s personal standing has also softened, with her net likability falling four points to +6, down from +15 in January.
Meanwhile, the Coalition has edged slightly ahead of One Nation on the primary vote at 23 per cent, though the difference remains within the margin of error. Labour has recovered to 32 per cent after a dip in March, but remains below its last election result.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese holds a narrow one-point lead as preferred leader over Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, with a significant share of voters still undecided.
At a two-party preferred level, Labor maintains a 55–45 lead — unchanged from the last election — suggesting limited movement in the broader contest despite fluctuations in minor party support.
However, the polling also highlights One Nation’s growing perceived influence. While 38 per cent of voters expect Labor to win the next election and 22 per cent back the Coalition, 16 per cent believe “someone else” could prevail — widely interpreted as a nod to One Nation’s rising profile.
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