The Allan government says Victoria is seeing “early signs of progress” in the fight against crime. However, the state’s latest crime figures point to a far more troubling reality: overall offending is still rising, youth offenders remain heavily over-represented in the state’s most serious street crimes, and car theft has reached its highest level in more than two decades.
Crime Statistics Agency data for the 2025 calendar year shows overall recorded offences in Victoria rose 4.2 per cent, while offending by minors increased 2.3 per cent. Youth offenders were responsible for 57.6 per cent of carjackings, 52.6 per cent of home invasions, 47.8 per cent of aggravated burglaries and 62.4 per cent of robberies.
More than 32,000 cars were stolen last year, the highest number since 2001, with the agency linking part of the surge to the spread of key-cloning technology. Police also seized a record 17,400 knives and machetes.
Those are not the figures of a government in control of the crime problem. They are the figures of a state still struggling with entrenched youth offending, repeat violent crime and a worsening theft wave that continues to leave victims shaken and communities on edge.
Even Victoria Police stopped short of offering any real comfort. Deputy Commissioner Bob Hill said crime appeared to be “stabilising”, but acknowledged there were still far too many victims, and that offending remained well above levels Victorians would traditionally expect.
The government’s response has been to focus on tougher bail outcomes and claim that its crackdown is beginning to work.
In its statement, Labor said bail refusals and revocations are at record highs, refusals and revocations in the Magistrates’ Court have increased by 84 per cent, refusals and revocations in the Children’s Court have risen by more than a third, and remand decisions have jumped by nearly 70 per cent. The government also argued that “offending by boys under 18 has now fallen” and that the growth in serious and violent crime is slowing.
Police Minister Anthony Carbines insisted the shift in bail outcomes was proof Labor’s approach was biting, saying, “There’s more work to do to keep the community safe, but we can already see the tougher bail laws are working and offending by young males is now falling.”
But even Carbines could not avoid the scale of the crisis, conceding:
“Crime is still unacceptably high, and there are too many victims in the community.”
He said that was why Labor had “delivered Adult Time, toughened bail laws, and backed Victoria Police with more powers.”
On the other side, Shadow Minister for Police and Corrections, Brad Battin, said: “In Labor’s Victoria, three cars are stolen every hour, and a quarter of a million crimes remain unsolved. Victorians deserve better.”
“Labor is weak on crime, and they will never fix the crisis they created. Under a Wilson Liberal and Nationals government, if you break bail, you will face jail.”
Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny was blunt in defending the government’s legal response, saying,
“Bail refusals are at record highs because our laws now prioritise community safety above all.”
That may be true on paper, but the political problem for Labor is that the headline numbers Victorians see are not about court processes. They are about cars being stolen in record numbers, homes being invaded, robberies remaining heavily driven by youth offenders, and thousands of violent incidents still occurring across the state.
That disconnect is what makes the government’s victory lap look premature. Ministers are pointing to more people being refused bail and more offenders being remanded in custody, yet the same official release shows Victoria remains gripped by serious offending on a scale the government itself describes as “unacceptably high”.
If tougher laws were supposed to reassure the public, the latest figures instead suggest many Victorians still have good reason to feel unsafe.
Leader of the Opposition, Jess Wilson told The Australia Today, “Labor has created Victoria’s crime crisis. Victorians have never felt less safe.”
“I will make sure our bail and sentencing laws reflect community expectations; if you commit a crime, you will face consequences.”
Premier Allan’s government wants to frame the 2025 figures as the foundation for further progress in 2026, arguing its “Adult Time for Violent Crime” laws and Violence Reduction Unit will build on the trend. But that argument relies on confidence that the state has finally turned a corner, and the latest data simply does not deliver that certainty.
At best, the figures suggest a fragile slowing in some areas. At worst, they show a government trying to sell process as progress while the lived experience of crime in Victoria remains deeply confronting.
For now, the numbers leave the Jacinta Allan government with an uncomfortable truth of its own: more bail refusals may be up, but so too are the crimes Victorians fear most. And until that changes in a way communities can actually feel, Labor’s claim that it is getting on top of crime will remain open to serious doubt.
Support our Journalism
No-nonsense journalism. No paywalls. Whether you’re in Australia, the UK, Canada, the USA, or India, you can support The Australia Today by taking a paid subscription via Patreon or donating via PayPal — and help keep honest, fearless journalism alive.
