A record 16 percent of last year’s school-leavers in New Zealand left without any qualifications — the highest figure in a decade — sparking fresh concerns about the state of the education system and prompting a major government overhaul of NCEA.
According to RNZ, the figure equates to approximately 10,600 teenagers, and represents a 0.4 percentage point increase on the previous year. It is also six percentage points higher than the pre-pandemic norm of 10–11 percent.
According to the Ministry of Education, the proportion of school leavers without an NCEA certificate has been steadily rising since 2020, a trend attributed to lingering effects of the Covid-19 lockdowns and a strong job market luring students away from the classroom.
Educators have also expressed concern that new, tougher literacy and numeracy requirements introduced last year for NCEA Level 1 may further compound the issue. The ministry’s data shows 13 percent of last year’s leavers failed to meet the new literacy and numeracy benchmark, compared to 10 percent under previous standards.
Despite the concerning qualification rates, school retention slightly improved, with 81 percent of school leavers remaining in school until at least age 17 — up from 79 percent the year before. The biggest gains in retention were seen in lower socioeconomic areas.
However, stark disparities remain. Māori students were the most affected, with 28 percent leaving school without any qualifications, followed by 19 percent of Pacific students and 14 percent of European/Pākehā students. In Tai Tokerau, nearly one in five school leavers had no NCEA certificate.
Socioeconomic barriers were also significant: 28 percent of leavers from schools with the highest levels of disadvantage had no qualifications, compared to just 4 percent from the most advantaged schools.
On a more positive note, the percentage of students leaving with NCEA Level 2 or higher rose slightly to 76 percent, and 56 percent attained at least NCEA Level 3 — a 2.7 percentage point increase from 2023.
In response to the growing concern, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford on Monday announced sweeping reforms to the NCEA system. Under the proposal, NCEA Level 1 will be replaced with foundation-level literacy and numeracy tests. Levels 2 and 3 will be phased out in favour of a New Zealand Certificate of Education and an Advanced Certificate.
Students would be required to take five subjects and pass at least four to gain each qualification. A new grading system — ranging from A to E — will score students out of 100.
Stanford said the current NCEA model is being “gamed”, with students earning credits for activities such as group participation or filling out forms.
“There’s too much credit counting,” she told RNZ’s Nine to Noon.
“The previous Labour government tinkered with Level 1, but nothing has changed — students are still cobbling together an ad-hoc collection of credits.”
The proposed changes mark one of the most significant education reforms in years, aiming to address both falling qualification rates and concerns over the credibility of the NCEA framework.
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